Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:03 pm Post subject: Re: EDOUARD
Recon is reporting a pressure drop to 1007 MB and they have found west winds that signify a closed circulation. 91L may be upgraded to a tropical depression shortly. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:12 pm Post subject: Re: EDOUARD
It's official.. Tropical Depression Five.
NHC
28.3N, 88.0W, Winds 30 kts, Pressure 1009 MB ,Class- TD, _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:48 pm Post subject: Re: EDOUARD
000
WTNT35 KNHC 032043
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 415 MILES...665 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR...AND
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N...88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:51 pm Post subject: Re: EDOUARD
000
WTNT45 KNHC 032033
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY HAS SHOWN THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EXPOSED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. RECENT REPORTS OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED
ENOUGH FOR THE LOW TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 36 KT AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/5. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN THIS AREA...WITH THE GFS AND
UKMET AIMING AT WESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE AIMING AT TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN
36-48 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WHICH HAS GIVEN THE SYSTEM A RAGGED
APPEARANCE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH 50-55 KT WINDS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST
GFDL CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL... WHICH IS A SHARP CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO
THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST ON THIS ADVISORY.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 5:37 pm Post subject: Re: EDOUARD
Recon reports large pressure drop to 1002MB. Flight level winds of 53 Kts in Sw Quad. Could have upgrade to Tropical Storm.
Storm 05: Observed by AF #308
Storm # In Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #: AF308
Date/Time of Recon Report: August 03, 2008 21:04:10 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 28 ° 06 ' N 087 ° 57 ' W (28.10° N 87.95° W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 20 Knots (23 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 7 Nautical Miles (8.05 miles) From Center At Bearing 297°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 025 Knots (28.75 MPH) From 048°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 007 Nautical Miles (8.05 Miles) From Center At Bearing 299°
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1002 Millibars (29.588 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 22°C (71.6°F) / 280 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 24°C (75.2°F) / 281 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 21°C (69.8°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): Surface
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.03 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: A Nautical Miles
Other Information:
1: Maximum OUTBOUND AND Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 53KT SE Quadrant at 2107Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 6:00 pm Post subject: Re: EDOUARD
000
WTNT35 KNHC 032150
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
500 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE FIFTH OF THE
SEASON...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM CDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 420 MILES...675 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...88.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 6:08 pm Post subject: Re: EDOUARD
WTNT45 KNHC 032157
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
600 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008
WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO...IT FOUND MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...A
DROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. EDOUARD IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1540 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 6:27 pm Post subject: Re: EDOUARD
It's amazing what just a few hours can do. Once it drifted offshore a bit it was able to gain strength and I see no reason at all why this system won't be a cat1 at landfall (lots of room to work with). It's going to be interesting to see how ol' Eddie develops over the next day. _________________ Chris
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