Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 8:39 am Post subject: Severe weather possible for SW FL,Aug 3rd,'08 weather thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008
(snip)
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY - TUESDAY)...
TRANSITION DAY TODAY AS L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. TUTT LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEGUN TO PULL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WILL ADVECT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND NORTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN REGION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT. AN U/L RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
(/snip) _________________ Todd
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Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 8:47 am Post subject: Re: Severe weather possible for SW FL,Aug 3rd,'08 weather thread
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
511 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-032115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
511 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
DAY ONE: TONIGHT.
..THUNDERSTORM IMPACT:
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AN
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN: MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
..THUNDERSTORM IMPACT:
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN
WHICH WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND URBAN
AREAS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. _________________ Todd
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Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 12:35 pm Post subject: Re: Severe weather possible for SW FL,Aug 3rd,'08 weather thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1030 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...OUR 12Z SOUNDING DRIER THAN WE`VE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS (PW 1.7 INCHES)...AND WITH FLOW HAVING CHANGED TO SE FROM THE
SW WE`VE BEEN HAVING...THIS IS RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO
THE DAY ACROSS OUR CWA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE ALONG THE OLD LAND BREEZE...BUT THESE SHOULD BE DIMINISHING SOON.
NOTED DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AND GIVEN SE FLOW THAT`S ALREADY IN PLACE...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME MOISTENING OVER OUR CWA SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY TODAY. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WC SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND...WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THINKING THAT POPS ARE LITTLE HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DRIER INITIAL CONDITIONS...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO THEM FOR NOW AND ADJUST LATER THIS MORNING IF NEEDED (POPS 30 NORTH/40 CENTRAL/60 SOUTH). _________________ Todd
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Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1540 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 7:00 pm Post subject: Re: Severe weather possible for SW FL,Aug 3rd,'08 weather thread
Todd,
It appears that a lot of the moisture is being pulled north. Maybe we will have some overnight showers as they appear to be building pretty good in the southern portion of the state. _________________ Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 7:10 pm Post subject: Re: Severe weather possible for SW FL,Aug 3rd,'08 weather thread
Not quite enough of an easterly trajectory to the upper-and-mid-level wind flow to generate the diurnal seabreeze collisions yet, but moisture is certainly flowing in from the south, so we'll likely be treated to a nighttime lightning display over the Gulf. I would think many of the coastal communities will see some heavy rainfall on Monday.
Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 10:59 am Post subject: Re: Severe weather possible for SW FL,Aug 3rd,'08 weather thread
The last time we had synoptic features similar to what we see going on today was the day of the tornado on Skyline. Excellent conditions for some robust thunderstorms this afternoon.
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