Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 7:32 pm Post subject: Re: GET READY TO ROCK & ROLL
The satellite pic below shows three areas in the east Atlantic in close proximity which is confusing the models. They are jumping back and forth trying to decide which one will develop. It appears that the GFS is keying on the center disturbance which is at approximately 35W. It may take a few more runs to sort this out.
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Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 8:07 pm Post subject: Re: GET READY TO ROCK & ROLL
It appears the NHC agrees with my thoughts. I would expect an Invest soon.
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Sep 01, 2007 Posts: 185 Location: Front Royal VA
Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:46 pm Post subject: Re: GET READY TO ROCK & ROLL
The squall line/tropical wave that is about to exit West Africa also looks significant. The "sail on a sailboat" shape that it has is an indication of organization and energy. This is only an intuitive perception, based perhaps on past experience. Time will prove it right or wrong.
Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 3:47 pm Post subject: Re: GET READY TO ROCK & ROLL
Manuel wrote:
The squall line/tropical wave that is about to exit West Africa also looks significant. The "sail on a sailboat" shape that it has is an indication of organization and energy. This is only an intuitive perception, based perhaps on past experience. Time will prove it right or wrong.
Agree, looks pretty good and should get mentioned by the NHC after the whole system clears the coast. Here's the latest pic of the three Amigos.
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