OPHELIA IS AN ANNOYING NAME FOR A TS..........

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

Well it's 2pm Thurs and as I have felt all along, this storm has gone nowhere in the past 36 hrs. In fact, if anything Ophilia has been drifting SW. On this afternoons satellite presentation we find the outflow headed in 2 opposite directions. (WSW & ENE) The storm actually wants to head in either of these directions right now but can't because there is a tug of war going on with both sides equally as strong (in reality...weak) The storm has quickly reorganized early this afternoon after a ragged look earlier this morning. IMO at 2pm she is close to a hurricane if not a minimal Cat 1 already. I guess we'll have to wait for a plane to get in there and hopefully it finds the stronger winds. Anyway, the meteorological world is baffled by this storm and the consensus is we could still have her off our shore a week from now! I still feel she will start nudging WSW before the weekend and I will stick to my guns until the storm proves otherwise. The one real danger is if she drifts out another 75 miles or so to the East and slowely turns back towards Fla. next week. This would allow her to break away from the land influence (drier air) and possibly become a Cat 2 or borderline 3 upon her approach. I am watching closely and as soon as I know...you'll know Exclamation

chris

They finally upgraded to Katrina to Cat 1 status. I thought this storm should have been a hurricane since this morning but they probably just got around to flying a plane into it. A lot of forecasters seem to think this storm will go way offshore then possibly loop around but others are thinking its going to drift slowly into Florida. Others think it will go S and head under Florida and emerge in the Gulf. Hard to say at this point since its stationary. Like you said, the tug of war. I guess whatever pressure system decides to deteriorate first is the direction Ophelia will head. Guess will just have to wait and see. Could get interesting.
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Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather

chris

3 active hurricanes! havent seen that in a long time! thank god 2 arent any threat to us! Very Happy

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Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

983 mb and a T.S. ??? Probably the strongest T.S. in history Laughing

If it was a hurricane at 989 mb yesterday.....sounds like fuzzy math to me. Post later on track now that she's moving....

chris

Yep, they just bumped it back up to a hurricane, again! The NHC cant seem to make up there mind, lol Very Happy

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Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather

chris

Jacksonville Radar. Can see a hint of the eyewall.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p...kjax.shtml
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Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

Well it looks like FLA dodged a bullet with this one. The storm has unexpectedly pushed fairly rapidly NE during the past 24 hrs as she obviously felt the effects of a trof going by to her North. She will slow down and stall in the next 18 hrs or so and get turned around again to the west. Luckely for us she will already be in line with SC by then. Climatologically, the hit is now favored between Charleston SC and Wilmington NC. As she turns West she should become at least a Cat 2 ...borderline 3 as she appoaches landfalll. By the movement of this storm Imo the season has ended for us from the Atlantic which will now target the Eastern Seaboard. Any threat here will come from Gulf or South of Cuba.