Thank goodness it's not a model I give too much creedence to when it's out on it's own. However, even a blind squirrel occasionally finds a nut. And with Murphy's Law in full effect here, a Cat 3 slamming N.O. from the SE (worst possible direction) it would be all over for what little is left salvagable in that poor city). Something to keep an eye on for sure but I still say it goes slowely for the Carolinas
Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:23 am Post subject: Re: GFDL Slams N.O. Again Withy System Off FL Coast
It is a bit scary though if you look at the overall pattern in the means. The forcasted upper flow around the huge high up north does give creedence to a storm forming off SE Fla moving towards the upper Gulf Coast again. I'll keep an eye on it as it's forming a CDO off W. Palm Beach now..............Scary stuff
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1540 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:13 pm Post subject: Re: GFDL Slams N.O. Again Withy System Off FL Coast
Jeff, that is scary stuff. I've been keeping an eye on that area of L pressure sitting since yesterday and its almost at a stall without much movement. It also looks as though its getting some circulation at this point. I know that system is fairly close to shore but one knows now it doesnt take much time for a system to develop into a cat 1 or possible cat 2 (katrina). That was crazy how quickly it formed and hit florida and them reemerged into the monster that it was. Do you think anything will turn out from it? I still cant believe the aftermath of katrina. That storm made charley look like a 5 o'clock thunderstorm. _________________ Chris
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Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:26 pm Post subject: Re: GFDL Slams N.O. Again Withy System Off FL Coast
Chris, I do believe that this system will become a depression in the next 24-36 hrs. On a positive note, the system is not far offshore and shouldn't develop rapidly. Also, there are 2 other disturbances to the NE and SE of the system and all 3 may play off each other to fight for surpremacy. This also argues for a weaker system. While I still favor a move along the East Coast (annoyingly slow) towards the Carolinas, I cannot ignore the strong high left in the wake of Katrina over New England whose influence extends all the way down to central FL. This argues for a more NW track across the state and into the Gulf. It would be ironic if this system took the NW track and struck the Gulf Coast again. The reason being is that the abnormally low pressure of Katrina moving into SE Canada caused abnormally high pressure to build in behind it and could wind up creating the steering current which drives this storm into the Gulf.....all the way from New England
Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:46 pm Post subject: Re: GFDL Slams N.O. Again Withy System Off FL Coast
Here is a good radar presentation showing the broad cyclonic nature of the precip off Miami. Also you see a very wet fetch coming off the Atlantic SW towards Lake Ochachobee. This may be the start of my crappy week scenario
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1540 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:04 pm Post subject: Re: GFDL Slams N.O. Again Withy System Off FL Coast
Tropical Storm Nate - hmm. Just by looking at the latest model it appears to be going way offshore. I'm glad they finally named it though. It was destined to be a TS sooner or later by the way it was looking. _________________ Chris
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Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
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