South Florida Hurricane Threat By Monday Night....

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SUCH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE MUCH
STRONGER BY 72 HOURS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE 18Z GFDL MODEL RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM INTO A 120-KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. WHILE THAT RATE OF INTENSIFICATION MAY BE A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...THIS SYSTEM REACHING STRONG CATEGORY 2 STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS IS CERTAINLY A VIABLE SCENARIO.

FORECASTER STEWART

Basically what I was trying to say earlier this evening Cool

chris

Yep, it has a lot of time to develop so there is no doubt in my mind that it could generate into a strong cat 1 or cat 2. Will have to wait and see how things unfold tomorrow. I'm betting my 11 pm tomorrow it will be a TS.
_________________
Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

Still trying to see where the actual true center develops as shear from an upper low near Cuba is still disrupting things. If the center develops further North, it shouls scrape the everglades (South tip)...further South (near Key West). Will make final determination later this evening.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

Storm strengthening rapidly now, consolidating and heading NW. If this motion continues for next 12 hrs. the only way for this to miss S. Fla would be a WSW turn as Rita will be getting close to the lat. of the S. Peninsula. Rita should become a hurricane by the 11AM advisory tomorrow morning and make her closest approach on Tuesday. For now, I will stay with the brushing S.FL track in contrast to the 5PM NHC track which brings her West between Cuba and Key West. With the clear NW movement tonight, I would be surprised if the 11pm track was not nudged North and portions of SE FL not put under a hurricane watch. More in the AM

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

Before I go to bed....something to keep in mind. Last storm I originally went close to the climatologically favored track up to the Carolinas before falling prey to the models brief lunacy track into the Gulf. Well folks if Rita acts like her historical peers.......were in trouble!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr...climo.html

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

Still looks to me this morning that the tru center is trying to establish itself further North than TPC's plotted location. If so, South Fla will be under Hurricane Warning this afternoon and Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings would extend up West Coast to our area. More at lunchtime. Final Call this evening

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

I pretty much have a handle now on the true center as thr CDO has blown up around it and an eyewall should start to appear later today. I feel the storm will track within 20 nm of Key West (N or S) but the fact that it will probably a Cat 3 hurricane by then due to explosive strengthening in the next 36 hrs leads me to believe that we will have a good storm up our way also. Sustained tropical force winds are likely IMO with gusts not out of the question approaching hurricane strength (especially in S.Lee and Collier Cty's) More later..