HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION

chris · Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:48 pm Post subject: HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION

I might be a little early on this Subject (Hurricane Rita) but I wanted to create a new topic for this storm. Keep all posts in here regarding this storm. The NHC already claims it will be a hurricane by the time it passes Florida. As of now it is still a TS but will probably be Hurricane Rita by the time the 11PM advisory rolls around from the National Hurricane Center. Rita is currently at 70mph and the pressure is dropping which means shes starting to flex her muscles a little bit.
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SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Well, after digesting the 11pm update I am ready to make a final call. First off, this storm is now a hurricane. Just because the plane didn't find the strongest winds doesn't mean they aren't there. At 2 am they will upgrade her simply due to continued pressure drop. This storm is deepening quickly now and as soon as the center is free of Andros Island in a few hrs, she will go through the Cat 1 stage like a hot knife thru butter. By the time this storm passes Key West tomorrow IMO she will be approaching or at Cat 3. At this strength, the wind field to the North will expand far enough to sustain 40-50 mph winds here with gusts approaching hurricane strength during intense rain bands. If I am wrong about the intensity, the winds will not be nearly as harsh. Naturally, if the center comes about 50 miles further North than Key West, we would then experience near sustained hurricane conditions with a Cat 3 storm. Rain will have a tough time initially due to the dry Ne flow tomorrow. After 2pm, all bets are off..............More in AM.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Well, after digesting the 11pm update I am ready to make a final call. First off, this storm is now a hurricane. Just because the plane didn't find the strongest winds doesn't mean they aren't there. At 2 am they will upgrade her simply due to continued pressure drop. This storm is deepening quickly now and as soon as the center is free of Andros Island in a few hrs, she will go through the Cat 1 stage like a hot knife thru butter. By the time this storm passes Key West tomorrow IMO she will be approaching or at Cat 3. At this strength, the wind field to the North will expand far enough to sustain 40-50 mph winds here with gusts approaching hurricane strength during intense rain bands. If I am wrong about the intensity, the winds will not be nearly as harsh. Naturally, if the center comes about 50 miles further North than Key West, we would then experience near sustained hurricane conditions with a Cat 3 storm. Rain will have a tough time initially due to the dry Ne flow tomorrow. After 2pm, all bets are off..............More in AM.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

I'll tell you, Rita is one fickle broad......I am shocked at 7AM Tues that she has not been classified a hurricane. I am certain she is a minimal hurricane at this point, but I can see why the NHC refuses to upgrade her. It all has to do with the poor eyewall development. When this happens, the strongest winds are often spread over a greater distance than the eyewall. It's harder for the plane to locate the strongest winds as it is just a needle in a haystack in the storms broad circulation. Expect her to quickly strengthen this morning as she enters the Fla. Straits over 88 degree waters. I will still expect her to have 100-110 mph winds passing Key West(nr or within 20 miles South) later today, but I would not be shocked at this point to see her still a Cat 1 either as this eyewall thing is really bothering me this late in the game. We have again dodged the bullet in the Cape as besides windgusts in the 50-60 mph range possible if she goes to 110, it will not cause many problems here. May have to watch for an isolated tornado this afternoon as we are in the NE quadrant most favorable. Will monitor and update as necessary. Oh, and by the way, I fully expect the pattern to produce another storm over the Bahamas by later this weekend and we could be tracking another new system off our shore this time next week Exclamation

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Finally a hurricane, but thankfully radar signature indicates that eye is even a bit further South than I expected. Biggest concern will be outer band of intense rain rotating NW from Miami-Dade. This should be our main event as storm is moving so quickly it will be passing our longitude this afternoon. After that passing gusty showers scattered around. Pressure is dropping quickly and storm should go to Cat 2 quickly

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

She'll be passing under Key West within 90 min (about 10 miles south of my initial forecast yeterday at 11AM) Pressures still dropping and my estimated wind speed is closing in on 95-100 mph at 1pm. Key West just barely out of eyewall but about to get hurricane force winds. Our worst weather begins by 2pm and should get some good TS winds and blinding sideways falling rains with Northern feeder band. Looks like a good fetch of water all the way off the East Coast so we may get a good soaking for several hours before it evolves to a more scattered showery nature.....

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Internet connection has been down since 2pm...bad timing. What we are observing now is how a NE wind here is a dry wind. Here we are 185 miles North of a major hurricane (I feel it is a 110 mph storm now) and the big rain sheild has fallen apart with the dry air being punched into the Northern rain band. While we still can have some passing heavy rain and gusty winds, I feel the chance of getting any sustained wind/rain has diminished greatly. Only if we were to get some sun over the next couple of hours do I feel we would destablize enough for any severe weather to occur. Really nothing more than a gloomy day here....thank goodness. Sorry I revved this thing up so much but you must understand the actual dynamics of a developing storm are impossible to pre-determine. In plain english, I do not have the ability to see that the strongest convection/wind field would wind up on the SOUTH side of the center until it got itself together several hours ago. Had that been on the North side our weather would be quite a bit wilder now. I am here to forecast storm potential as I feel it is always better to prepare for the worst scenario even if it doesn't materialize. Nobody out there were telling you about a Cat 2/3 hurricane headed for the Keys a few days ago. While there was talk of possible storm development, the public was not informed of it's potential severity in the vicinity of South Florida. I understand that forecasting the extreme is potential for egg on your face as it is not the norm. That being said, I am not afraid to go out on the limb here well before you hear it publicly. If I am wrong, it is a good thing......no destruction in paradise. This is my post from Saturday( the day the NHC didn't want to call this a depression yet):

PostPosted: Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:36 pm Post subject:

"This my friend will become a big Texas problem. A very strong high will guide it west across the entire Gulf and very warm (88 degree) water in the Western Gulf will ramp this up to a Cat 3 or dare I say Cat 4 if it takes it's time across"

I am fearing at this point the Houston-Galviston area are going to experience a Katrina like storm by Saturday... ultimately a Cat 4 storm on impact, possibly a Cat 5 in the Gulf on Thursday night or Friday......I hope I am wrong for those people and our economy.......By the way, this is a forum and everyones opinion and thoughts are important. If we are to make this board really great, I think people should post ideas, questions etc. Don't be afraid to make points and ask questions, as sometimes a novice can see something as plain as day when someone like me is too busy reading recon data and a dozen models to notice Smile

chris · Posted: Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:34 pm Post subject: Re: HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION

Well I think this storm is going to be a bruiser wherever it ends up. But I really think your track is going to be correct, Texas better start preparing to buckle down a little bit and get ready. Even though I did see the right edge of the cone to be slightly east into the New Orleans area, I cant see it being a threat there. I may be wrong but to have 2 major storms hit in the same area seems crazy. The only thing that I could possibly see happening is the upper right quadrant of Rita would cause flooding there if it hit in east Texas (Galveston area). The one thing that bothers me is that all those people that fled away from New Orleans due to Katrina are still in Houston and now have the pressure of another storm. I know Houston is about 40-50 miles from the coast so it could easily rattle them up if it was a large enough system. Flooding would probably be a main concern for them. But looking back at Rita, she seems to be gaining power as she moves farther from land. It was impressive to see Rita gain 25mph to a Cat2 in a matter of hours proving that she is starting to feed off those warm Gulf waters. I think the west coast is free of any threat like you had mentioned Jeff, just gloomy weather the rest of the day, tonight and probably part of tomorrow. It was actually nice getting a breeze today cooling things off a bit.
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chris · Posted: Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:42 pm Post subject: Key West Radar

Here is the NOAA Key West radar. You can really see the detail in the eye. Its not perfectly round but I bet once it moves away from all the land obstructions it will start to get more defined.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS....kbyx.shtml
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chris · Posted: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:59 pm Post subject: Re: HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION

From looking at the Key West radar from the past 30 minutes, the eyewall has really taken on some definition with an almost perfect circle at this point. The top right quadrant of the eyewall still seems a little jagged but in due time I'm betting it will smooth out.
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