Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:45 pm Post subject: Re: OMAR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2025 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:49 pm Post subject: Re: OMAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THE ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS INCREASED OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 10:37 am Post subject: Re: OMAR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SUN 12 OCTOBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z OCTOBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-134
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 70
A. 13/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 13/1500Z
D. 15.5N 70.0W
E. 13/1900Z TO 14/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 1:58 pm Post subject: Re: OMAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOW MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND IF NECESSARY...A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 7:55 pm Post subject: Re: OMAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NANA...LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDERD MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
WHICH HAVE BEEN HINDERING DEVELOPMENT...ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW. IF
NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...HEAVY RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN SOME AREAS THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:34 am Post subject: Re: OMAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NANA...LOCATED ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS AND A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A
PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:00 am Post subject: Re: OMAR
NHC UPGRADING 98L.
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN (AL152008) 20081013 1200 UTC
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:57 am Post subject: Re: OMAR
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
69.6 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...545 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
CURACAO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...3 KM/HR.
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...HOWEVER...A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO REACH THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
THIS IS A LARGE DEPRESSION AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.8 N...69.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
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