Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 2882 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:20 pm Post subject: Re: OMAR
ccstorms wrote:
chris wrote:
Good intensification expected by Omar if it reaches 104knts. Also, it is a good thing this storm will most likely be a fish and won't affect US soil except for PR and the barrier islands.
Chris, i'm also glad it's not going to hit the U.S. mainland, but it's not a fish. It's going to impact Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and other islands of the Leeward and Windward Islands. A fish storm does not hit land.
That makes sense Lou. I guess if it's going to hit some sort of land it can't be considered a fish. This may turn into an evil storm for those folks. _________________ Chris
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Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:37 pm Post subject: Re: OMAR
chris wrote:
ccstorms wrote:
chris wrote:
Good intensification expected by Omar if it reaches 104knts. Also, it is a good thing this storm will most likely be a fish and won't affect US soil except for PR and the barrier islands.
Chris, i'm also glad it's not going to hit the U.S. mainland, but it's not a fish. It's going to impact Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and other islands of the Leeward and Windward Islands. A fish storm does not hit land.
That makes sense Lou. I guess if it's going to hit some sort of land it can't be considered a fish. This may turn into an evil storm for those folks.
Yes it could be real bad. The NHC admits that intensification forecasts are not very reliable but the references made to possible rapid intensification in the forecast discussion is quite alarming. We may see a major Hurricane in the Caribbean. On another matter.....recon will have to move from St. Croix because Omar will be heading in that direction. They will probably have to fly missions out of Homestead which is a much longer distance and will cut down the recon time inside the storm. _________________ LOU
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Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 5:22 am Post subject: Re: OMAR
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 09:40Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 15L in 2008
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 9:12:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°36'N 67°40'W (14.6N 67.6667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 284 miles (458 km) to the SSW (202°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,965m (9,728ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 320° at 48kts (From the NW at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the WSW (244°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,063m (10,049ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 7:21:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 9:15:10Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
LGT - MDT TURBC AND LTG IN INBOUND AND OUTBOUND EYEWALLS _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
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Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 6:18 pm Post subject: Re: OMAR
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 21:46Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 15L in 2008
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 21:22:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°10'N 65°50'W (16.1667N 65.8333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 156 miles (251 km) to the S (174°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,865m (9,400ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the SE (124°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 250° at 90kts (From the WSW at ~ 103.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the S (176°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 969mb (28.61 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 170° to 350° (S to N)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 90kts (~ 103.6mph) in the south quadrant at 21:14ZMaximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 21:27Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the SSW (201°) from the flight level center
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
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Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 6:58 pm Post subject: Re: OMAR
RECON UPDATE
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 21:25Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 23:23Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
JAGGED EYEWALL ON RADAR _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
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Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 7:03 pm Post subject: Re: OMAR
NHC UPDATE..
"REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
170 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ALSO... STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN." _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
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Also, it is a good thing this storm will most likely be a fish and won't affect US soil except for PR and the barrier islands.
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