Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:04 pm Post subject: TD 17 now PALOMA
A large area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean that has been persistent for the last 5 days is slowly becoming better organized and has been designated Invest 93L by the NHC. A recon flight has been scheduled for tomorrow if the development trend continues.
NOUS42 KNHC 041500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST TUE 04 NOVEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z NOVEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-157
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF COAST OF NICARAGUA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 05/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 05/1615Z
D. 14.0N 82.0W
E. 05/1930Z TO 05/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0217A CYCLONE
C. 06/0130Z
D. 15.0N 82.5W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC TUE NOV 4 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:44 pm Post subject: Re: TD 17 now PALOMA
Snip from NWS Key West:
"THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS REGARDING BROAD LOWER PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW PRESSURE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST PASSING
SOUTH OF CUBA BEGINNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT AT
THIS TIME THE ONLY EFFECT COULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DESPITE THE GFS 12Z MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INSISTENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...AND GIVEN THE DISTANCE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE KEYS...AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE POPS
AT THIS TIME. IF THERE IS MORE OF A DEVIATION NORTHWARD WITH THIS
LOWER PRESSURE THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THESE PERIODS."
Snip from NWS Miami:
"BEYOND SUN...SOME WAFFLING OF LONG RANGE MODELS AS TO WHAT WILL
HAPPEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT NEXT WEEK. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE S GREAT PLAINS THEN NE INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE W CARIB GETS PULLED NORTHWARD. WILL
THIS GO E INTO THE ATLC WITH THE MAJORITY OF MOISTURE/INCREASED
CHANCES OF RAIN BEING E OF S FLA...OR...INTO THE GULF WITH S FLA
BEING UNDER THE THREAT OF INCREASED MOISTURE/CHANCES OF RAIN TUE.
BY WED...THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND HIGH PRES REBUILDS AGAIN OVER
THE AREA. UNTIL SITUATIONS BECOME MORE STABLE IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS...WILL KEEP THE STATUS QUO IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW." _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:21 pm Post subject: Re: TD 17 now PALOMA
Winds 25 kts, pressure 1006 MB.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:03 pm Post subject: Re: TD 17 now PALOMA
NHC now at code RED.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 5 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE BORDER OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:07 pm Post subject: Re: TD 17 now PALOMA
WTNT33 KNHC 052101
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN....
AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE NICARAGUA BORDER TO LIMON.
AT 4 PM EST...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES...185 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON
FRIDAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 400 PM EST POSITION...14.0 N...81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM EST.
Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:07 pm Post subject: Re: TD 17 now PALOMA
The GFDL is forecasting TD 17 to become a Cat 3 before crossing Cuba. The NHC is currently going with a strong Cat 1 but they stress that the environmental conditions are excellent for strengthening. A cold front later this week should turn TD 17 (Paloma) to the northeast taking it across central or eastern Cuba and out into the Atlantic. The forward speed of TD 17 and the arrival timing of the cold front are critical as to when the northeast turn begins. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 6:42 pm Post subject: Re: TD 17 now PALOMA
The 18Z GFS forecasts TD 17/Paloma to be picked up by the approaching front later this week and moves it across central Cuba heading northeast into the Atlantic.
Posted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 5:47 am Post subject: Re: TD 17 now PALOMA
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM
PALOMA...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PALOMA. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES...110 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...
65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PALOMA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 400 AM EST POSITION...15.1 N...82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM EST.
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