Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 3146 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 2:55 pm Post subject: Re: Ida
Manuel wrote:
I still think the NHC is being too conservative on the strength once it gets over water. In the warm waters of the Caribbean with not too much shear, why can't it become a hurricane again? Time will tell...
It probably will regain strength once it gets back out into open water but you have to realize the NHC cone only goes out 5 days. So in fairness to the NHC, they are probably trying to keep the track and strength as accurate as possible within that time period. _________________ Chris
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Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:36 pm Post subject: Re: Ida
NWS KEY WEST
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO THE QUESTIONABLE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. IF IDA SURVIVES ITS INTERACTION WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND THAT IS A BIG IF...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS WEEKEND. IF IDA DOES SURVIVE ITS TRIP THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS MURKY AT BEST. IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE ANY TYPE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM SUSTAINING ITSELF FOR VERY LONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES A TAD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NWS TAMPA
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY) THE FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME IS ABOUT AS UNCLEAR AS IT COULD POSSIBLY GET. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS IDA AS A TROPICAL STORM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS POSITION AT THAT TIME...WHICH LENDS SOME CREDIBILITY TO THE GFS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME. THE GFS DECOUPLES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT NEEDS TO BE STATED THAT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE OFTEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE THERE IS NO WAY OF KNOWING HOW MUCH OF IDA WILL RE-EMERGE OVER THE GULF. FOR NOW...WILL JUST KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NWS MIAMI
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HERE THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED. WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL DEPEND, TO A GREAT EXTEND, ON THE FINAL TRACK OF "IDA" THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIB AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS PERIOD IS WELL BEYOND THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK...A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT "IDA" OR ITS REMNANT LOW COULD MOVE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AND MEANDER SLOWLY OVER THOSE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...WE COULD SEE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER S. FLORIDA WHICH IN TURN COULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. REALIZING THAT THIS IS STILL FAR IN THE FUTURE, OPTED FOR KEEPING POPS AS THEY ARE AND WAIT TO SEE IF FUTURE MODELS RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TREND.
NWS MELBOURNE
FROM TUES INTO THURS THE FORECAST BEGINS TO BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO LONG TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM IDA. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST BRINGS IDA INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FROM THERE SOME CONTINUED NORTHWARD PROGRESSION IS POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. BUT DUE TO THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTIES WILL LEAVE EXTENDED FORECAST AS IS WITH LOWER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW _________________ LOU
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Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 3146 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 4:26 pm Post subject: Re: Ida
I see the new 4 pm Monday-Tuesday NHC track has Ida shifting back to the east. Let's hope the track doesn't shift anymore than that. Hopefully Ida doesn't turn into a fish-like storm like we have witnessed all season long. _________________ Chris
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Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 3146 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:07 pm Post subject: Re: Ida
At least the GFDL model finally settled down. It was putting some crazy numbers in the forecast! _________________ Chris
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Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:52 am Post subject: Re: Ida
NWS Miami
THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHAT TRANSPIRES OF T.D. IDA NOW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. NHC FORECASTS IDA TO RE-EMERGE OFF THE NICARAGUAN COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN HAS IDA MOVING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING INTO A TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WIDELY VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WHAT COULD TRANSPIRE NEXT WEEK. FOR INSTANCE...THE 06/00Z ECMWF MODEL TAKES WHAT'S LEFT OF IDA OVER THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF...SHUNTING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS WOULD MEAN QUIET WEATHER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...THE 06/00Z GFS RUN SHOWS A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY...WITH IDA MOVING INTO THE SE GULF TOWARDS THE SW FL COAST TUE-WED...WITH A HEAVY RAIN/WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FL. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. _________________ LOU
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Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 1:52 pm Post subject: Re: Ida
chris wrote:
Convection starting to fire once again as Ida starts to depart from the coast.
Yep, and the convection is deep and developing quickly. I would expect Ida to regain tropical storm strength quickly when the center moves offshore and it's possible that Ida could again reach Hurricane strength. Once in the gulf Ida will not have good conditions to maintain it's strength and will likely weaken once again. I would expect nothing more than a tropical storm or depression which could make landfall somewhere along the eastern gulf coast. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
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Joined: Sep 01, 2007 Posts: 318 Location: Front Royal VA
Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:23 pm Post subject: Re: Ida
I think the long range is calling for a sheared storm off the west coast and sitting around--an extended rain event for Florida. Strong east winds on the surface and strong west winds above. Ida see if I have a flood plan for my house, especially around Melbourne, Vero Beach, etc.
Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:05 am Post subject: Re: Ida
Ida is strengthening and is once again a tropical storm with winds of 45 mph. Convection has increased in the form of a strong CDO with cloud tops of -80 C.
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