GFS forecasting 4 to 5 more gulf systems

ccstorms

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 114 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2010

..A SIGNIFICANT GULF LOW WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER BY TUESDAY

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY) HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR...AND MANY INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE NATURE COAST WILL SEE 70 DEGREES OR BETTER. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP GRADUALLY MONDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EVEN THEN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT WILL BE ALONG THE NATURE COAST. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO BE INTENSIFYING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF BY SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS LOW CENTER WILL CROSS NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MID DAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE SEVERE STORMS...BUT A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY TUESDAY. THE ONE MISSING INGREDIENT WILL BE THE RETURN OF HIGH DEW POINT AIR...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS AND JUST A LOW THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. WE WILL BE ABLE TO PIN THIS DOWN BETTER AS TIME GOES ON.

OTHER HAZARDS WE WILL SEE ON TUESDAY INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS.

MARINE
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH A GREAT LOOKING DAY ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUESDAY MORNING...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY. SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 10 FEET OR MORE ON TUESDAY CREATING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EVEN JUST A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH FRIDAY AS COOL NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.

ccstorms

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 141 PM EST MON MAR 1 2010

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW SHOWING LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY EVENING. WE EXPECT A FAIRLY ROBUST SQUALL LINE TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND BE POSITIONED NEAR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AROUND SUNRISE. THE FAST EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IN TURN SHOULD KEEP MOST OF OUR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ELEVATED...WHICH LIMITS THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS. STILL...WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 70 KNOTS AND VERY HIGH HELICITIES...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE BOTH ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF WE CAN DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE EITHER A TORNADO OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH GO UP FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM RISKS...WE ALSO HAVE STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO DEAL WITH. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OCCURRING WHEN THE SQUALL LINE MOVES ONSHORE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR LOW TIDE WHICH WILL MINIMIZE THE IMPACT. IF THE SQUALL LINE IS DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS...WE COULD SEE A BIT MORE THAN JUST MINOR FLOODING. THE WATCH MAY BE REPLACED BY A STATEMENT LATER TONIGHT IF INDEED THE SQUALL LINE REMAINS ON TRACK AND ARRIVES NEAR LOW TIDE.

AS FAR AS WIND GOES...A DRY SLOT IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BY MID-DAY TUESDAY. IF WE GET ANY HEATING AT ALL...WE WILL MIX DOWN SOME VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THIS COULD BRING US VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS WITH MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING 33 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AT CLEARWATER ON TUESDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BE THAT STRONG...BUT ALMOST CERTAINLY 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL IN OFF THE GULF BUT WE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OVER THE INTERIOR.
IT WILL CONTINUE BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT BEST TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY) THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND QUIET...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF AN EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY. H8 TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN -2 AND -4C ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP DAY AND NIGHTTIME READINGS BELOW NORMAL BY SOME 15 DEGREES OR MORE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL FREEZE THREATS FOR THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AT THE SURFACE. WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING VERY SLOW TO EXIT EAST...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE COOL SURFACE A HIGH AND NORTHERLY FLOW AND THUS IT WILL BE SLOW TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SUNDAY AS THE PATTERN FINALLY UNBLOCKS AND ALLOWS FOR H5 RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE. NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SOME GULF EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE VERY COLD AIRMASS BY MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE DRY AND SUNNY. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVIATION VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. THEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND CAUSE LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z. RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FINAL SIX HOURS OF THE TAF AT ALL SITES. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MARINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE BUT GUSTS COULD REACH 40 KNOTS DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO 9 TO 14 FEET WITH HAZARDOUS CURRENTS NEAR THE SHORE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING...BUT WE ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE WITH OUR FORECAST NOW SO THAT WOULD ONLY BE AN INCREASE OF 5 KNOTS OR SO. WE WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MARGINAL WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FIRE WEATHER MAY SEE SOME NEAR-CRITICAL HUMIDITIES ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 15 MPH WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH SINCE WE WILL HAVE A GOOD WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AND BELIEVE COLD ADVECTION MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. BEYOND THAT TIME RED FLAG CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS WE BEGIN TO WARM UP BUT REMAIN IN A DRY AIRMASS.

WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE- CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE- LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE- PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

Weatherman911

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
358 PM EST MON MAR 1 2010

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY.
PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
358 PM EST MON MAR 1 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN TIDES RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...MAINLY
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE. THIS WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL WATER ONSHORE
BUT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AS LONG AS IT
ARRIVES ON SCHEDULE. A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SQUALL LINE WOULD
BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO THE COAST. THE PEAK FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY BETWEEN
NOON AND 6 PM.

HAZARDOUS SURF WILL ALSO REACH OUR SHORES A FEW HOURS AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES BY. SURF HEIGHTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 7 FEET AS
SEAS BUILD TO 10 TO 14 FEET OFFSHORE. SURF WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DANGEROUS WATER ACTION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THIS INCLUDES ROUGH SURF...LARGE
BREAKING WAVES...RIP CURRENTS...AND STRONG UNDERTOW.

BEACH GOERS ARE URGED TO HEED LIFEGUARD WARNINGS.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL
FLOODING.
_________________
Todd
Weatherman911 Hurricanes Featuring Lous Weather Watch
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Weatherman911

This image updates:

_________________
Todd
Weatherman911 Hurricanes Featuring Lous Weather Watch
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Weatherman911

These images update:

______________________________________________
MESO is tornadic rotation / TVS is Tornado Vortex Signature (Tornado) / HAIL is hail

_________________
Todd
Weatherman911 Hurricanes Featuring Lous Weather Watch
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Weatherman911

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
808 PM EST MON MAR 1 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL COUNTIES FROM LEVY THROUGH SARASOTA AND INCLUDING
HILLSBOROUGH...

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ALL INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...

.AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.

SUMTER-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...LAKELAND...
WINTER HAVEN...WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
808 PM EST MON MAR 1 2010

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO
10 PM EST TUESDAY.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA LAKES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 20 TO 29 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR OR ABOVE GALE
FORCE FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WILL
CREATE ROUGH CONDITIONS ON LARGER AREA LAKES WHICH COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGE TO...OR FLIP...SMALL PLEASURE CRAFT.

OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS MAY WISH TO POSTPONE LAKE RELATED ACTIVITIES
UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
_________________
Todd
Weatherman911 Hurricanes Featuring Lous Weather Watch
http://weatherman911.tripod.com

chris

Tuesday:
Showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers. High near 71. South wind 18 to 24 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
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Site Administrator
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ccstorms

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 148 PM EST WED MAR 10 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS AND A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)
NAM/GFS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MIGRATE EAST AND INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RATHER STRONG JETSTREAM WILL PARK ITSELF ACROSS THE GULF REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE FAVORABLE U/L SUPPORT AND LIFTING FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. BUT PLENTY OF L/L MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY AS S/SW FLOW ESTABLISHES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE DEEPENING M/L TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN STATES. POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS REMAIN HIGH ALL DAY FRIDAY...70 PERCENT THROUGH 00Z. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME 2 INCHES OF RAIN ON AVERAGE ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. TEMPERATURES DON'T DROP THAT MUCH DURING THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH AFTERNOON. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY HOWEVER BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS MEANS A WEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEREFORE NO REAL COLD PUSH FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...AND EVEN AROUND 80 AT SOME SPOTS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND MID 40S NORTH OVER THE NATURE COAST TO MID 50S DOWN SOUTH. AS FAR AS TUESDAY AND BEYOND GOES...MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING ON THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DEEP TROUGH LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH THE GULF IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE THEM TO 30% BY WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM.

chris

Special Weather Statement - Lee (Florida)

Updated: Wed, 10 Mar 2010 16:18:38
CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
315 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AHEAD OF THIS LOW COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RAINS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE CURRENT TIME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVY
RAIN WILL PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND WILL CAUSE AREA RIVERS TO RISE. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG
RIVERS AND FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPID
RISES IN WATER LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BE READY TO
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN STRENGTHENING LOW AND MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND OR
TORNADOES THE MAIN HAZARDS.

ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

MCMICHAEL
Issuing Weather Forecast Office Homepage
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Chris
Site Administrator
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ccstorms

0455 PM TORNADO 5 ESE HAINES CITY 28.07N 81.55W 03/11/2010
POLK FL EMERGENCY MNGR
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED REPORT OF TORNADO DAMAGE IN THE GRENELEFE RESORT. TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADS AND ROOF WAS TORN OFF APT BUILDING.