Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2005 7:44 am Post subject: TD# 9's Escape becoming problematic...SAT 8/6 AM
What I previously felt was a slam dunk forecast for TD# 9 is becoming increasingly problematic. I felt by now the storm would have been a TS and slowely strenghtening. This however, has not occured. The problem is that the weaker a storm is, the less vertically stacked it is in the atmosphere, and therefore is less vunerable to the upper steering flows dictated by trofs passing by to the North. Hence, the weaker storms are generally caught in the Easterly tradewinds keeping the track more to the West. If this storm does not get stronger in the next 2 days, it will miss the connection with Harvey's trof and the SE US (including FLA's East Coast) is in danger as this will become a hurricane eventually. Also arguing for a more Westerly track is another wave moving off Africa which will try and tug it from underneath. If we are not dealing with a 50mph+ storm by tomorrow, expect the NHC to adjust that NW 5 day course to just North of almost due West........
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