2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
437 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE INFLUX OF CARIBBEAN MOISTURE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEK AND BEYOND.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT DOES...IT
WILL STREAM COPIUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH SHOULD BE AT ITS CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST ACCOMPANIED BY THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AXIS. AS A RESULT...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AREAS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING THE HEAVIEST QPF FIELDS FURTHER WEST AS THE TROUGH ENTERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST DAY 1-2 QPF OUTPUT FROM HPC DEPICTS A 3
INCH BULLS EYE JUST NORTH OF KEY WEST WITH AN AREA OF 2-2.5 INCHES
STRETCHING ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN STREAM EAST ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO BUT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HPC TENDS TO AGREE KEEPING A SWATH OF 1-1.5
INCHES OF RAIN FOR THIS PERIOD JUST OFFSHORE THE GULF COAST
STRETCHING NORTH TO AROUND TAMPA.

FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARD MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE GULF LOW. THE GFS DEPICTS A SPLITTING OF THE 700
MB LOW WITH THE NEW LOW SURGING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH
IT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THESE LATER PERIODS WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. LONG STORY SHORT...IT WILL BE A VERY RAINY
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE ONLY
QUESTION IS THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

&&

.MARINE...
ENE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 5-6 FEET
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND CONDITIONS NEARING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

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NWS TAMPA

AN U/L LOW OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL
HELP PULL A LARGE AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN NORTH...WHICH WILL ADVECT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON HOW
FAST THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. BUT IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT
MOISTURE WILL LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS TAMPA ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND HAVE TRENDED
POPS HIGHER. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMATIC NORMALS BY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT
A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF FLORIDA AND GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE WHERE THE LOW FORMS AND THEREFORE THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS WHERE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIFFER...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH AND
THUS BEING THE WETTER SOLUTION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR NOW IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE REGION SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS HAS BEEN DEPICTED USING A
BLEND BECAUSE OF SOME REMAINING MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AND MORE CLOUD COVER.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
332 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A VERY RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OUT
OF THE EAST ON THE COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WHICH IS
VERIFIED BY C-MAN OBSERVATIONS. THE KBYX RADAR HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN STRAITS...MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AND FLORIDA BAY AT
THIS HOUR. THE EVENING SOUNDING DATA IS DECEPTIVELY DRY WITH 1.3
INCHES OF PWAT. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS ARE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS.

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
ADVECTING VERY HIGH AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...THE KEYS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA. PWAT VALUES WILL APPROACH 2.5
INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH THIS IN MIND
EXPECT THE COLUMN WILL BE COMPLETELY SATURATED TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QPF IS VERY HIGH AND EXPECT THE RAINFALL RECORDS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY BE BROKEN. EXPECT THE USUAL SUSPECTS ALONG LOW
LYING AREAS AND TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.
IF YOU HAVE TO DRIVE TRY TO FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES AROUND THESE AREAS
RATHER THAN RISK DAMAGE TO YOUR VEHICLE OR SURROUNDING STRUCTURES.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TODAY AND GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ADDING TO THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION. WE WILL HAVE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE DOWN PLAYED THE PROBABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT DUE TO THE NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURATION. WILL
ISSUE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STATEMENT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST.
THE CHANGE IN THE POPS FORECAST IS DUE TO THE DECREASE IN THE LARGE
SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM ACROSS THE AREA. PWATS VALUES WILL STAY WELL
ABOVE 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AT LEAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACTING AS A BLOCK...THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHEST ALONG THE WESTERN MARINE ZONES...WITH 15 TO 20
KNOTS WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS...AND NEAR 15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE THROUGH
MONDAY.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STRETCHING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

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_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
132 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...BIG CHANGES TAKING PLACE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW HIGH OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE. THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO GO
FROM TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THAT IS VERY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
RETURN. THE GFS INITIALIZED THE PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS AROUND
FLORIDA PRETTY WELL SHOWING A 12Z AMOUNT OF 2.28 AROUND KEY WEST
WHILE THE SOUNDING CAME IN WITH 2.14. THATS QUITE A CONTRAST TO THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND TAMPA WHERE THE MODEL DEPICTED 0.93
VERSUS AN OBSERVED 1.08. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS AT
THIS TIME WHERE THE GFS DEPICTS THE MAXIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS.
THIS BAND OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS AMONG THE VARIOUS
MODELS...BUT THE GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM ALL BRING HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES OUR WAY WITH THE MOST RAIN LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO NORTH AND
EAST.

IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY...WE COULD BE IN FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF CLOUDY WET WEATHER.

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT
A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF FLORIDA AND GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE WHERE THE LOW FORMS AND THEREFORE THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS WHERE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIFFER...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH AND
THUS BEING THE WETTER SOLUTION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR NOW IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE REGION SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS HAS BEEN DEPICTED USING A
BLEND BECAUSE OF SOME REMAINING MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ISOLD
SHRA NEAR FMY/RSW LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS LOWER DURING THE
NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AND VCNTY SHRA MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...
REACHING SRQ BY DAY BREAK...AND WITH TSRA NEAR FMY/RSW AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...WILL ONCE AGAIN HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT FOR
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS ALONG WITH THE EASTERLY SURGE.
WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
WATERS SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS BEYOND 20 MILES FROM THE COAST.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN GENERATING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO THEN BASICALLY STALL IN THE CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST GULF
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS COULD BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WITH THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WILL OPTIMISTICALLY KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWEST OF
OUR WATERS...BUT IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS MIMIC THE 12Z GFS...STRONGER
WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS WILL PLAGUE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

CONVECTIVEMIKE

Latest QPF

CONVECTIVEMIKE

Noticing that the Long Range(AHEM) GFS are starting to throw a couple African Waves out there .

ccstorms

TropicWatcher

Looking back at previous posts on this thread the GFS has been consistent from June 2 and 3 predicting the system which eventually became Debby. Quite impressive the GFS has suggested development so well in advance.

Seems the GFS early on has stubbornly predicted crossing Florida as well. Which appears more likely at present. Interesting that the NHC chose to go with the other models in their track forecasts and discount the GFS. Tough business. Forecasting is tough business!

Kudos to the GFS!