DEBBY

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2012 7:56 pm Post subject: Re: DEBBY

I would start work on the Ark but I don't know what a Cubit is. Very Happy

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chris · Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2012 9:38 pm Post subject: Re: DEBBY

Seems to me that with the southern quadrants over the Yucatan it's having a hard time getting rotation.
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Weatherman911 · Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2012 9:53 pm Post subject: Re: DEBBY

GFS 18Z 62112
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ccstorms · Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:30 am Post subject: Re: DEBBY

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ccstorms · Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:31 am Post subject: Re: DEBBY

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
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ccstorms · Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:52 am Post subject: Re: DEBBY

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
DAY ONE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ..THUNDERSTORM IMPACT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT FOR LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ..THUNDERSTORM IMPACT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE BEST HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG COASTAL ZONES AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

..RIP CURRENT IMPACT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG AREA BEACHES WILL POTENTIALLY INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THOSE WITH BEACH PLANS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST RIP CURRENT FORECASTS AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL.

..WIND AND SEA IMPACT WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS LOW. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO THIS POTENTIAL STORM.
_________________
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Cape Coral.
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ccstorms · Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:00 pm Post subject: Re: DEBBY

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. INTERESTS
ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
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chris · Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:09 pm Post subject: Re: DEBBY

It appears the models are starting to agree with each other on every new run.

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chris · Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:24 pm Post subject: Re: DEBBY

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Wthrwatcher · Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:32 pm Post subject: Re: DEBBY

For those considering construction of an ark, the Royal Cubit, of Egyptian origin, is approx. 21 inches or the length of an average forearm. Very Happy

Least I can do in return for all this great information Exclamation

I am a fan of the GFS model. American made, I believe.