Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 1:20 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 97L-Deactivated
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI JUN 29 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 1:57 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 97L-Deactivated
The SHIPS models intensify 97L to 55 kts at 96 hours while at the same time forecasting 33 kts of wind shear at 96 hours. They can't have it both ways. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 6:53 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 97L-Deactivated
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF DEBBY...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS MINIMAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
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