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Cape Coral - Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Invest 97L-Deactivated
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Invest 97L-Deactivated
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This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.   This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.    Cape Coral - Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> 2012 Hurricane Season
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 1:18 pm    Post subject: Invest 97L-Deactivated Reply with quote

11.7N, 47.1W, Winds 20 kts, Pressure 1012 MB.


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Last edited by ccstorms on Sun Jul 01, 2012 7:32 am; edited 1 time in total
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 1:20 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest 97L-Deactivated Reply with quote

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI JUN 29 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972012) 20120629 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120629 1800 120630 0600 120630 1800 120701 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.3W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.3W
BAMD 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.5W 12.3N 52.1W 12.7N 54.9W
BAMM 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.4W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.1W
LBAR 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.7W 12.3N 52.8W 12.8N 56.1W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120701 1800 120702 1800 120703 1800 120704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 58.9W 14.2N 66.5W 16.4N 74.7W 18.4N 82.0W
BAMD 13.3N 57.8W 14.5N 63.2W 15.9N 68.1W 17.8N 72.3W
BAMM 12.8N 58.3W 13.9N 64.8W 15.6N 71.2W 17.7N 77.2W
LBAR 13.1N 59.5W 13.3N 65.6W 14.2N 71.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 44.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 41.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 1:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest 97L-Deactivated Reply with quote


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chris
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 1:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest 97L-Deactivated Reply with quote

Thanks Lou. Will be interesting to see the model data.
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chris
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 1:50 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest 97L-Deactivated Reply with quote

Floater is up!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater...oater.html
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 1:57 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest 97L-Deactivated Reply with quote

The SHIPS models intensify 97L to 55 kts at 96 hours while at the same time forecasting 33 kts of wind shear at 96 hours. They can't have it both ways.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:04 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest 97L-Deactivated Reply with quote


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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 6:53 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest 97L-Deactivated Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF DEBBY...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS MINIMAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 9:25 am    Post subject: Re: Invest 97L-Deactivated Reply with quote

NHC 12Z Plot.
12.0N, 50.5W, Winds 25 kts, Pressure 1013 MB.
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 6:37 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest 97L-Deactivated Reply with quote

Looks like the little guy got beat up by the bully.
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