Posted: Sat Jun 30, 2012 9:17 am Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
Looking out east we have 97L just east of the Windwards and it's struggling with the dry air and the shear from the upper LOW to it's north. To the southeast of 97L along the ITCZ is an area of showers and Thunderstorms that is showing decent rotation. Further east a large tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa. None of the Global Models as of 06Z today show any development in the entire Atlantic basin out to at least 240 hours.
Posted: Sun Jul 08, 2012 6:20 pm Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
July 8 model check.
The GFS is showing a Low pressure system nearing the African coast at the 312 hour mark. The GFS hangs onto it right out to the end of the run at 384 hours and has the system nearing 35W. This could be the start of the CV season. A few more runs will tell the story.
The NAM at 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z shows a trough coming in from the southern Bahamas, into the Florida Straits, to the SE Gulf, and to the central Gulf at the 84 hour mark. Each run of the NAM has shown this trough a little better defined. It will likely enhance our rainfall beginning late Tuesday. At this point the NAM is not showing significant development but is suggesting that the trough will close off into a Low pressure system as it nears the central Gulf. The NAM only forecasts out to 84 hours so we need a few more runs to see how it plays out. The GFS and EURO also see this trough and depict it as weak. _________________ LOU
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