Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 6:02 pm Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
The NAM nailed the trough mentioned in the previous post and shows another entering the Florida Straits at the 84 hour mark.
Tropically speaking, the GFS and Euro are showing subtle hints in the long range that the tropics will begin to get active around July 20. _________________ LOU
The circulation has held together and is now over central Florida. It will need to be watched as it enters the Gulf near Tampa. The NAM does want to develop it a little bit but the Global models don't even see it. _________________ LOU
Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 2:28 pm Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
Looks like there is alot of convect just to the E/SE in the Bahama's also. Maybe help spark er up a bit
Yes, the convection to the southeast is a tropical wave and it could help the circulation become more defined. It is an interesting feature to watch and I would be looking for the radar echoes in the gulf to increase as an indication that it's getting it's act together. Currently there is very little activity in the Gulf but that may change as the center moves offshore. A negative development factor is that the circulation is quite shallow and could open up and dissipate. However it does have plenty of moisture to work with and wind shear in the Gulf is non-existent.
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