Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 3127 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 5:23 pm Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
Funny you mentioned that Lou. The initial output was test and then it flipped over to 91L when I checked 5 or 10 minutes later. Thanks for letting me know because I wasn't 100%. You can see it active on the top right of the site under active storms.
Posted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 5:42 pm Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
chris wrote:
Funny you mentioned that Lou. The initial output was test and then it flipped over to 91L when I checked 5 or 10 minutes later. Thanks for letting me know because I wasn't 100%. You can see it active on the top right of the site under active storms.
ccstorms wrote:
Chris, that's a "Test" Invest.
The number was the clue. The last Invest was 97L. The next would be 98L.
The tropics won't be quiet too much longer. The ITCZ has pushed further north and is showing quite a bit of activity including a weak LOW that has formed. Also the Monsoon trough has also expanded north along with the ITCZ. The first image below shows the active ITCZ and also shows disturbances lining up across Africa. The second image which is water vapor shows how the northward surge of the ITCZ and the Monsoon Trough have cut off the SAL coming off Africa. You can see the previous SAL outbreak nearing the Caribbean but notice how the ITCZ and the Monsoon Trough have now moistened up the area east of the SAL all the way to Africa.
Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:54 pm Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
No tropical development on the models out to August 4. The GFS, NAM, and Euro bring a tropical wave across Florida on Sunday. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 9:59 am Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1040 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT FOWEY
ROCKS FLORIDA...AND DOPPLER WEATHER DATA INDICATE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 11:48 am Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
If the convection continues to build the NHC may bump the wave to 20% at 2 pm which would make an Invest possible. I do see some signs of the cloud tops warming which means it's not getting stronger. I also don't see any pressure falls that are significant.
Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 12:52 pm Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTAINING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS...
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A WIND GUST TO 62 MPH WAS REPORTED
AT FOWEY ROCKS FLORIDA EARLIER TODAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE TODAY...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE UNUSUALLY HIGH
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:32 pm Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
Model watch for July 23. The GFS and EURO are now showing the MDR becoming active by the end of the week or possibly earlier. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
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