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Cape Coral - Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued
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ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued
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This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.   This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.    Cape Coral - Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> 2012 Hurricane Season
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 7309
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2012 7:34 am    Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued Reply with quote

stormwatcher wrote:
Hard to see a tropical storm here! Earnesto does not deserve a name yet Rolling Eyes

Now CV4 looks quite impressive for it's 10%

Shocked


Looks can be deceiving regarding Ernesto. Recon VDM reports a well structured system with a warm core and partial eyewall.

000
URNT12 KNHC 031130
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 03/11:10:30Z
B. 13 deg 35 min N
061 deg 20 min W
C. 850 mb 1454 m
D. 34 kt
E. 347 deg 11 nm
F. 075 deg 49 kt
G. 339 deg 6 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 19 C / 1525 m
J. 21 C / 1511 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. Open North
M. E09/16/8
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0205A ERNESTO OB 20
MAX FL WIND 49 KT N QUAD 11:08:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 11:14:30Z
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE. OPEN NORTH QUAD.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2012 11:01 am    Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued Reply with quote

12Z NAM at 84 hours.

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chris
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:38 pm    Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued Reply with quote

Looks like another convection burst is taking place.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2012 11:32 pm    Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued Reply with quote

Note the white filler on the image. The shorter line is the 8pm adv while the longer line is the 11pm. A 7 degree shift towards the north.

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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:52 am    Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued Reply with quote

NHC 12Z Plot.
14.2N, 67.9W, Winds 45 kts, Pressure 1006 MB, TS
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:38 am    Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued Reply with quote

000
URNT12 KNHC 041427
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 04/13:56:00Z
B. 14 deg 18 min N
068 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1483 m
D. 22 kt
E. 193 deg 5 nm
F. 284 deg 17 kt
G. 209 deg 9 nm
H. 1008 mb
I. 18 C / 1524 m
J. 19 C / 1530 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0405A ERNESTO OB 11
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 14:14:30Z
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:50 am    Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued Reply with quote


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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:18 am    Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued Reply with quote

12Z NAM at 84 hours.


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2012 11:56 am    Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued Reply with quote

It appears that the center took a jog to the northwest. The core is warming and the pressure is dropping.

000
URNT12 KNHC 041616
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 04/15:54:20Z
B. 14 deg 26 min N
068 deg 44 min W
C. 850 mb 1457 m
D. 32 kt
E. 302 deg 44 nm
F. 068 deg 34 kt
G. 307 deg 86 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 14 C / 1520 m
J. 19 C / 1519 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0405A ERNESTO OB 14
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 14:15:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 43 KT SE QUAD 16:06:00Z


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CONVECTIVEMIKE
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:46 pm    Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued Reply with quote

It's starting to sniff out that warm water up by Jamaica .
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