Invest 91L-off Florida east coast-Deactivated

CONVECTIVEMIKE

Messy on this side. I am beachside and there is a steady. NE breeze here around 15 or so.

ccstorms

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1844 UTC FRI AUG 3 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912012) 20120803 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120803 1800 120804 0600 120804 1800 120805 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.1N 78.9W 26.1N 80.1W 27.2N 81.7W 28.0N 83.5W
BAMD 25.1N 78.9W 26.2N 79.8W 27.2N 81.1W 28.0N 83.0W
BAMM 25.1N 78.9W 26.1N 79.9W 27.0N 81.2W 27.8N 82.9W
LBAR 25.1N 78.9W 26.3N 79.8W 27.7N 81.0W 28.9N 82.3W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 27KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 24KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120805 1800 120806 1800 120807 1800 120808 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.8N 85.3W 29.0N 88.3W 28.8N 90.6W 28.6N 93.0W
BAMD 28.7N 85.2W 29.4N 89.2W 29.5N 92.1W 29.8N 94.0W
BAMM 28.5N 84.8W 29.1N 88.2W 29.2N 90.5W 29.5N 92.3W
LBAR 30.0N 83.1W 31.3N 84.2W 33.0N 84.6W 36.5N 84.2W
SHIP 38KTS 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 35KTS 45KTS 50KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.1N LONCUR = 78.9W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 77.8W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 76.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 230 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW TODAY...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED OVER EASTERN
CUBA AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...AS
THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH...DEVELOPMENT
COULD BE INHIBITED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html