HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

chris · Posted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:02 pm Post subject: HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

_________________
Chris
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chris

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Chris
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ccstorms · Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 6:58 am Post subject: Re: HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0635 UTC TUE AUG 7 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120807 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120807 0600 120807 1800 120808 0600 120808 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 27.7W 12.4N 30.1W 12.7N 32.7W 12.7N 35.5W
BAMD 11.8N 27.7W 12.4N 30.6W 13.0N 33.3W 13.4N 35.9W
BAMM 11.8N 27.7W 12.7N 30.2W 13.3N 32.7W 13.5N 35.0W
LBAR 11.8N 27.7W 12.3N 30.4W 13.1N 33.3W 14.0N 36.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 35KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 35KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120809 0600 120810 0600 120811 0600 120812 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 38.3W 10.7N 44.2W 9.9N 50.5W 10.0N 57.0W
BAMD 13.3N 38.3W 12.2N 42.9W 11.8N 47.1W 12.4N 51.3W
BAMM 13.1N 37.2W 11.3N 41.3W 10.1N 44.9W 10.1N 48.2W
LBAR 14.4N 38.6W 14.3N 43.7W 14.1N 48.2W 13.7N 50.3W
SHIP 41KTS 45KTS 51KTS 58KTS
DSHP 41KTS 45KTS 51KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 27.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 25.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 23.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:22 am Post subject: Re: HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC TUE AUG 7 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120807 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120807 1200 120808 0000 120808 1200 120809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 29.6W 12.4N 32.1W 12.7N 35.0W 12.7N 38.1W
BAMD 11.8N 29.6W 12.5N 32.5W 13.1N 35.2W 13.4N 37.9W
BAMM 11.8N 29.6W 12.7N 32.2W 13.3N 34.8W 13.4N 37.3W
LBAR 11.8N 29.6W 12.4N 32.6W 13.2N 35.7W 13.9N 38.6W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120809 1200 120810 1200 120811 1200 120812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 41.3W 11.4N 48.6W 11.5N 56.9W 12.8N 65.5W
BAMD 13.2N 40.4W 12.5N 45.1W 12.4N 49.5W 13.2N 53.5W
BAMM 13.1N 39.8W 11.9N 44.7W 11.1N 49.3W 11.1N 53.8W
LBAR 14.2N 41.3W 14.1N 46.7W 14.2N 51.2W 13.2N 52.5W
SHIP 37KTS 44KTS 55KTS 67KTS
DSHP 37KTS 44KTS 55KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 29.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 26.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 24.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:47 pm Post subject: Re: HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC TUE AUG 7 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120807 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120807 1800 120808 0600 120808 1800 120809 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 31.3W 12.4N 33.7W 12.8N 36.4W 12.6N 39.3W
BAMD 11.8N 31.3W 12.5N 34.0W 13.0N 36.4W 13.1N 38.8W
BAMM 11.8N 31.3W 12.7N 33.8W 13.3N 36.2W 13.3N 38.5W
LBAR 11.8N 31.3W 12.2N 34.7W 12.8N 38.1W 13.3N 41.4W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120809 1800 120810 1800 120811 1800 120812 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 42.3W 11.2N 49.4W 11.3N 57.0W 12.2N 64.9W
BAMD 12.8N 41.1W 12.0N 45.5W 12.3N 49.1W 13.7N 52.3W
BAMM 13.0N 40.9W 12.1N 45.4W 11.8N 49.1W 12.5N 52.7W
LBAR 13.5N 44.5W 13.4N 50.4W 13.6N 54.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 47KTS 60KTS 72KTS 77KTS
DSHP 47KTS 60KTS 72KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 31.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 27.8W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 25.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 7:11 pm Post subject: Re: HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON JUST-UPGRADED
HURRICANE ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 7:26 pm Post subject: Re: HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

NHC 00Z Plot.

11.9N, 32.9W, Winds 25 kts, Pressure 1009 MB.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:14 am Post subject: Re: HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAMPECHE.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:27 am Post subject: Re: HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0635 UTC WED AUG 8 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120808 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120808 0600 120808 1800 120809 0600 120809 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 34.6W 12.6N 37.5W 12.7N 40.6W 12.5N 44.0W
BAMD 12.1N 34.6W 12.7N 37.3W 13.0N 39.9W 12.9N 42.3W
BAMM 12.1N 34.6W 12.9N 37.2W 13.2N 39.8W 13.2N 42.4W
LBAR 12.1N 34.6W 12.5N 37.8W 12.9N 40.9W 13.1N 44.0W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120810 0600 120811 0600 120812 0600 120813 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 47.6W 12.3N 55.5W 13.0N 63.7W 14.1N 72.0W
BAMD 12.7N 44.8W 12.9N 49.2W 14.0N 52.6W 15.6N 56.0W
BAMM 13.0N 45.1W 13.2N 50.5W 14.2N 54.9W 15.8N 59.0W
LBAR 13.0N 47.1W 13.3N 53.0W 13.7N 57.3W 15.2N 59.4W
SHIP 46KTS 57KTS 59KTS 57KTS
DSHP 46KTS 57KTS 59KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 34.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 31.3W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 27.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:00 am Post subject: Re: HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html