Joined: Jun 20, 2005 Posts: 782 Location: Cape Coral, Fl.
Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 5:47 pm Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
Notice a little spin just east of Cuba.
Here is the write up on it. Anything to watch for or is this what may increase our rain chances over the weekend.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...
FROM JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CONNECTED TO A 21N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...THAT IS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATIONIS IN VENEZUELA AND NEARBY WATERS AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
NEARBY ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 76W IS RELATED MORE TO THE TROUGH OF
THE 21N72W CYCLONIC CENTER.
Heres a picture
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rb.html _________________ Sit back, relax and enjoy the show!
Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 6:29 pm Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
The rotation in the central Caribbean area is from a TUTT LOW and the vorticity is at the 200 MB level with nothing at the 500 or 850 MB levels. The TUTT is creating upper level divergence which is sparking the convection along a tropical wave which is approaching the area. Not much chance of any development but the moisture is heading for Florida. _________________ LOU
Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 7:24 am Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
The last several runs of the GFS spin up a Tropical Storm in the western Gulf. It appears to develop from a stalled trough of low pressure and some energy from former TD-7. It creeps north along the Mexican coastline to coastal Texas.
GFS at 144 Hours.
GFS at 183 Hours.
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