HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:50 pm Post subject: Re: HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 745 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:41 am Post subject: Re: HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1195
MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM REACHES LAND IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PART OF THE COAST TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1100
MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

UPDATED...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE NOT YET BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
ORGANIZED TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FORMATION...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT ANY TIME IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT REACHES LAND.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
OR WARNING WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO IF ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Aug 17, 2012 4:26 pm Post subject: Re: HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HELENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
430 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...AIRCRAFT FINDS TROPICAL STORM HELENE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 96.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA TO LA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF HELENE WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE WARNING AREA ON
SATURDAY.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE HELENE MOVES INLAND...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED
AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...HELENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO FROM NORTHERN
VERACRUZ...ACROSS SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND EASTERN SAN LUIS STATES.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms

The developing deep convection in the southwest Gulf could possibly pull the remnant center of Helene back offshore.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2012 1:12 pm Post subject: Re: HELENE-Final Advisory Issued.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 220
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
20 TO 25 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html