Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2012 4:16 am Post subject: Re: ISAAC- Final advisory issued
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 395
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...AND HAS ISSUED THE LAST
ADVISORY ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE...LOCATED INLAND OVER
MEXICO...ABOUT 85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAMPICO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 625 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2012 8:27 am Post subject: Re: ISAAC- Final advisory issued
SHIPS model wants to ramp up 94L to 101 kts. At this time the GFS and Euro don't agree with the SHIPS model.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:40 am Post subject: Re: ISAAC- Final advisory issued
The 12Z GFS takes 94L into the gulf with a landfall in Texas near Houston/Galveston.. That would be very spooky considering the name it would have. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2012 1:04 pm Post subject: Re: ISAAC- Final advisory issued
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 220
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
20 TO 25 MPH. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 3146 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2012 4:02 pm Post subject: Re: ISAAC- Final advisory issued
Seems like the models for 94L are slowly starting to dip a bit south. I also think this system has a great chance of becoming a big storm. Doesn't seem to be a whole lot of interference ahead and plenty of room to work with. _________________ Chris
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Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2012 6:44 pm Post subject: Re: ISAAC- Final advisory issued
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 110
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
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