KIRK-Final advisory issued.

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 7:12 am Post subject: Re: KIRK-Final advisory issued.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:47 am Post subject: Re: KIRK-Final advisory issued.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST WED AUG 29 2012

...KIRK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 46.9W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1485 MI...2390 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:08 am Post subject: Re: KIRK-Final advisory issued.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:49 am Post subject: Re: KIRK-Final advisory issued.

Kirk is now a Hurricane.

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 49.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:19 pm Post subject: Re: KIRK-Final advisory issued.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST THU AUG 30 2012

...KIRK RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 50.3W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 3:57 am Post subject: Re: KIRK-Final advisory issued.

HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 30 2012

KIRK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN...WITH A
SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST COMPRISED OF COLD CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE EARLIER RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE
SEEMS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF...THE EYE HAS WARMED FURTHER AND BECOME
BETTER DEFINED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE A CONSENSUS 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE LATEST ADT VALUES
HAVE BEEN RUNNING CLOSER TO T5.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
RAISED TO 85 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THESE DATA SOURCES.
KIRK HAS ANOTHER DAY OR SO TRAVERSING WARM WATERS IN A RELATIVELY
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE ALSO HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED
OUTFLOW SINK TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH A JET TO THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...
SUGGESTS A PEAK INTENSITY OCCURRING AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE POINT
OF RECURVATURE. A SHARP INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A TRACK OVER RAPIDLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEYOND 48 HOURS SHOULD RESULT
IN STEADY OR EVEN RAPID WEAKENING. A QUICK-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERTAKE KIRK IN 2-3 DAYS...RESULTING IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION JUST AROUND 72 HOURS AND ABSORPTION IN 96
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY
AIDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS VEERED A HAIR TO THE RIGHT AND IS 335/10. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLEAR-CUT. KIRK HAS REACHED THE WESTERN END OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SHOULD UNDERGO RECURVATURE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY BECOME EMBEDDED IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND ACCELERATE AT WARP SPEED WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES IN 36-48 HOURS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...GIVEN THE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 29.0N 50.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 30.5N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 33.0N 50.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 35.8N 47.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 38.7N 44.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 46.2N 34.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0000Z 52.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Last edited by ccstorms on Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:30 am; edited 1 time in total

A few more Star Trek fans at the NHC.

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK HAS BEEN ACCELERATING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES ITS TREK ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/28 KT. CONTINUED ACCELERATION TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS NOW THAT THE CYCLONE
IS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES REGION. SINCE KIRK REMAINS ON TRACK...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS.

A SMALL FLARE UP OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF
KIRK DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHICH HAS HELPED KIRK TO CLING ON TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A
SHORT-LIVED RESPITE...AND WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME LATER TODAY AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SUB-20C SSTS IN 6-12 HOURS. DEGENERATION
INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY 12
HOURS...AND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 43.5N 39.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 47.4N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/0600Z 53.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:00 am Post subject: Re: KIRK-Final advisory issued.

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM
RELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIRK HAS
BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING A VERY FAST 035/32. AN EVEN
FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Sun Sep 02, 2012 4:11 pm Post subject: Re: KIRK-Final advisory issued.

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

...KIRK BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.7N 32.6W
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.6 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONT
TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON KIRK. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UNITED KINGDOM
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html