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Cape Coral Online Weather :: View topic - Hurricane-Like Storm To Batter Carolinas/ Virginia..........
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Hurricane-Like Storm To Batter Carolinas/ Virginia..........
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SW46TER
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2006 1:06 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane-Like Storm To Batter Carolinas/ Virginia.......... Reply with quote

Not out of the question that this puppy goes tropical on us off SC coast. If it does and waits for super trof diving in this week...................watch out EAST COAST (MA TO NEW ENGLAND) AS IT IS SNOW WILL FLY BEHIND THIS FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS NC MOUNTAINS WITH FROST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH

*********************************

Went below freezing for 7 hrs. last night...down to 28.............grass cutting season is now officially over for me...........
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2006 3:23 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane-Like Storm To Batter Carolinas/ Virginia.......... Reply with quote

Looking at the water vapor loop shows it's about ready to move offshore the Georgia coast. Most all of the substantial convective activity is taking place in the coastal waters and it will be interesting to see if any convection will fire up near the low center as it moves offshore. It's very unlikely that it could transition to a true warm core system but I couldn't totally rule out a hybrid. It's a slow tedious process going from cold core to warm core but any significant delay of this system being shunted off to the northeast or should it remain cut off longer would create a whole new set of potential problems. None of which would be good for the east coast.
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Lou
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Weatherman911
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2006 4:16 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane-Like Storm To Batter Carolinas/ Virginia.......... Reply with quote

Water Vapor Loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html
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Todd
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capecodder
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 8:50 am    Post subject: Re: Hurricane-Like Storm To Batter Carolinas/ Virginia.......... Reply with quote

Looks like re-development is happening off Hatteras. Surprised
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2006 4:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane-Like Storm To Batter Carolinas/ Virginia.......... Reply with quote

There appears to be an upper and mid-level rotation with nothing yet at the surface. It's just north of a 20 to 30 kt shear zone and is avoiding the shear at this time. Convection is firing near the low center but would have to fire big time and maintain it to bring that mid-level circulation down to the surface and close it off. It needs more time.
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Lou
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capecodder
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:15 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane-Like Storm To Batter Carolinas/ Virginia.......... Reply with quote

http://www.ssd. noaa.gov/ goes/flt/ t1/loop-vis. html

Starting to look interesting. Very Happy
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:12 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane-Like Storm To Batter Carolinas/ Virginia.......... Reply with quote

Not much happening Rich. There are multiple tiny naked swirls trying to compete with each other and none of them are succeeding. No convection in the vicinity of the swirls along with increasing shear will prevent development. Conditions are becoming increasingly hostile and anything beyond a cold core low is now very unlikely.
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Lou
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capecodder
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2006 9:49 am    Post subject: Re: Hurricane-Like Storm To Batter Carolinas/ Virginia.......... Reply with quote

Yep, looks like a dud; yet, the models are bringing heavy rains and gales into southern New england tonite.
The only thing going to happen for sure is it will turn lots colder.

Rich
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