Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 10:07 pm Post subject: WATCHING THE MODELS-Recon?
Checking the 1800Z model run of the GFDL, NAM, GFS, and UKMET, all show a low pressure system entering the Gulf from the Yucatan Channel later this week. The track is nearly identical to Barry. The shear forecast for later this week in the Gulf is not good for tropical development and none of the models show this low pressure system to be very strong. We may be dealing with another lopsided storm, wet on the right side, that could give us some nice rainfall. The thing to watch is if the models are consistent in future runs. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 3:20 pm Post subject: Re: WATCHING THE MODELS-Recon?
Today's 1200Z model runs are as follows.... The GFS shows a strong low coming through the Yucatan Channel and tracks right into SW Florida. The CMC, NAM, and UKmet show a weaker version with pretty much the same track as the GFS. No run is available from the GFDL. A weaker system is still the most likely outcome and hopefully we can get a bunch of rain. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 12:26 pm Post subject: Re: WATCHING THE MODELS-Recon?
The NHC has alerted Airforce Recon for a possible flight tomorrow (friday) to investigate the area near the Yucatan Straits IF it becomes better organized. If this area becomes better organized an Invest will be started. It takes 24 hours notice for a recon flight to gear up and it's always easier to cancel the flight than scrambling to put a crew together on short notice.
_________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: May 21, 2006 Posts: 132 Location: Southeast Florida
Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 1:19 pm Post subject: Re: WATCHING THE MODELS-Recon?
The Trof over Florida, will steer this system across the Southern part of the state correct? It looks like the Trof will be hanging around for over 48 hours.
Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 3:51 pm Post subject: Re: WATCHING THE MODELS-Recon?
Yep, the steering flow will swing to the south and southwest bringing all that nice juicy stuff this way. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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