Something in the catl to watch.

texascanecaster1 · Posted: Fri Aug 24, 2007 10:42 am Post subject: Something in the catl to watch.

Do you see what i see?

That is something we have just started watching. Convection was nonexistant with this system....until now. Convection has just started forming all throughout the system. Shear is less than 5 kts and will remain that way as a tutt in front of the system moves westward in tandam with it. This thing is a weak 1012 mb surface low that formed in the itcz yesterday. Sssts in the area are high and there isnt much dry air around. We need to wait and see if this system develops a blob of convection not just these little popcorn shower before it can become a tropical depression. Also the sfc low is quite weak it will need to strengthen. However if convection continues to increase this afternoon this will definetly be something to watch. The system would moved west regardless of developmenet to wnwest until it reached the central carribean. From there, due to a weakness now forming in the bm because of a front, dean, and becuase a secondary high that was backing it up is no longer there, a turn nwwestward would occur after that. But who knows right now cyclogenisis is tricky and it doesnt even have good convecction yet. Still we need to keep and eye on it at this time of year things like this usually develop.
_________________
Texas

texascanecaster1

its building vertically...... eek

_________________
Texas

texascanecaster1

thoughts??? no comment.s oh no! nilly

_________________
Texas

Nolesjeff

Some convection, not much I'll watch the stalled remnants of 92l for now, but good catch. you are certainly looking hard
_________________
GO NOLES

GlenJohnson · Advanced Member Joined: Aug 05, 2007 Posts: 37

We're so starved for rain here in NCentral Florida, I'm sitting here praying for popcorn rain. Getting pretty gray out now, and I heard a couple of boomers. Cross your fingers.
_________________
Welcome to the Sunshine State, is it raining yet?

texascanecaster1

lol its not that im starved for a system. It really could develop. I was ekptical, until it started firing much bigger convection this afternoon. Lets see what it does over diurnal maximum. shear could also eat it tommorrow that all depends.

still thats tiny in comparsion to better lows. but who knows i still remeber how 99l did something like that and then the next morning it was almost a td. so lets just wait and see.
_________________
Texas

texascanecaster1

Uh oh. The thing in the catl is getting much bigerr.....its got a cosolidating thudnerstorm complex and now its firing even more heavy convection.....i think that surface low might develop over night tonight lets watch it closely. nilly

_________________
Texas