Two Tropical Depressions lurking

chris · Posted: Sat Oct 01, 2005 5:14 pm Post subject: Two Tropical Depressions lurking

Well the Tropical Wave we have been talking about finally formed in the Caribbean as Tropical Depression 20. It doesnt appear to be any threat to SW Florida, much less the US as it is drifting west near the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest advisory is quoted below from the NHC. Tropical Depression 19 doesnt appear to be a problem for us either as it is forecasted to head into the North Atlantic and possibly out of harms way for any part of US. Historically, the hurricane season should start to subside, according to the link below.

http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/prepare/images/season.gif

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

TD# 20 has sure taken it's time getting it's act together but it is on the course layed out early this week. I do agree with the NHC that this will become a hurricane in the Southern Gulf and head into Mexico as high pressure ridges westward and will not allow a NW turn (a la Rita) into Texas. Landfall Tue night or Wed AM. I still feel strongly that another system will form in the next few days and and with strong high pressure to it's North and NW, this will now likely cross the FL Peninsula in the Wed-Thurs time frame. I don't feel it will have enough time to develop into more than a marginal TS, however, when this system gets into the Gulf it may become a wandering monster waiting out there to come back NE towards FL when the high weakens. Either way, the difference in pressure between the high and TS will cause increasingly strong East to NE winds in our area and a continuation of our recent wet pattern.........

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

I could have waited until this morning and let the Tampa NWS office do my discussion from yesterday Very Happy

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE AREA FROM THE NE AS NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM STAN MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND APPROACHES THE EASTERN FL COAST BY TUESDAY. LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE NAM STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL SEE HOW THIS RESOLVES WITH THE FUTURE RUNS TO SEE WHERE AND IF WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS. WITH THE MOISTURE AND RAIN IN PLACE. MODERATE E/NE WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL WET PATTERN THRU THE PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE TUT LOW MOVES FROM THE N CARIB INTO THE E GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SFC REFLECTION TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF AS WELL. BOTH FEATURES THEN STALL IN THE EASTERN GULF THRU MID WEEK. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE WETTER EASTERN SIDE OF WAVE WITH UPPER SUPPORT TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL DIURNAL SCT POPS. TROUGHINESS TO SET UP AND DEEPEN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THRU THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS EXPECTED
TO PUSH TROPICAL FEATURES BACK OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE WEEK INTO SAT AGAIN KEEPING POPS ABOVE NOMAL

chris

Very interesting indeed, so where is the system they are talking about. Stan seems to be looking better now that its back over open water again. The Yucatan kind of beat him up.
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chris

Ahh, I see it now. Just had to look a little deeper into the info. Not looking to shabby out there even though the NHC says its disorganized.