Potential for beneficial rainfall this week

alorfi

The deep retracting low across Dixie may generate some convective activity late Tuesday, but I'm also increasingly encouraged by the track of the low which will leave the boundary stagnant across the southern part of Florida. This will allow two upper-level rotations to track in our direction, one on Friday and possibly another on Sunday. This gives us three separate "events" that could produce meaningful rainfall.

Hovmoller trends still pointing to wetter spring and an earlier onset of the rainy season which will yield above-average rainfall in 2008, possibly as much as 120 percent normal value. We would require around 65 inches this year to achieve that. Let's hope that verifies.

chris

Looks like we got shafted with rain so far. Mad

Keep an eye on the blob of moisture coming off of Mexico right now. Heard a report that it is supposed to give us some decent rain once it starts developing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
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Cape Coral Online Weather

alorfi

I haven't yet given up on this initial boundary which should bring a few stronger showers and brief downpours into our area later tonight. I think anyone getting over a quarter-inch should consider themselves lucky, but every drop in the bucket counts at this point.

Yes, the upper-level feature has intrigued me as well and is the same system riding along the stalled boundary that I mentioned for Friday. This would be the second of the three legitimate chances of rain we have this week.

LVFC

We are getting a nice little shower right now, near the Honolulu Canal in SE. Don't know if it has enough energy to continue for long enough to do any good.

bob

Missed our chance for rain today. No dynamic features in place to support much in the way of precipitation over the next several days. Even a relatively strong frontal passage over the weekend looks to to be dry.
Enjoy the cool weekend. After that we head for warmer temps thru September!

bob
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Sit back, relax and watch the show!

alorfi

Bob, I'm not sure it will be a dry frontal passage as we will see a very strong southerly flow ahead of the system. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see temperatures soar into the upper 80s with dewpoints near 70 on Friday afternoon... to be followed by readings in the mid-60s by midday Saturday. I'll even go so far as to say we'll likely see some severe weather ahead of this front, especially north of the Charlotte/Sarasota county line.

I did see .37 inch of rainfall this afternoon from one of my stations, but that was way up in North Port. It's too bad we couldn't squeeze out much down here.

CONVECTIVEMIKE

Looks like in a few hours us in the Tampa Bay area will be getting soaked and rumbled on. Wishing that we can share some of the deluge with you guys to the South.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl...pa%2c%20FL

chris

It's strange. A lot of the moisture I've seen near Tampa has stayed offshore but down south near Labelle and the central cities have gotten pounded with rain and lightning all day. No rain reported in the Cape today as far as I know. It's been cloudy but dry as a bone.
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bob

Still think all the energy from current system moving to the Northeast ... pulling away from us. Forecast is for another low to develope in the Gulf. If so, believe it also will pull to our north. High and dry. Cooler and pleasant conditions ahead.

bob
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Sit back, relax and watch the show!

alorfi

The northeasterly-tracking low is still deepening and will pull the dramatically colder air across the Gulf tonight. Out front, we are now seeing dewpoints near 70 degrees and PWATs up near 1.8, so there is sufficient moisture at all levels to generate some beneficial rainfall ahead of the frontal passage tonight.

The only real inhibiting factor in this scenario is the frontal passage will occur during the nighttime, so convective activity will be less than if it swept through during the heat of the day. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see some vigorous storms up in northern Charlotte and Sarasota counties late this evening. We certainly stand a chance to receive some more beneficial rainfall down here in the Cape, but the threat of severe weather is obviously less further away from the center of circulation.

Three of my stations saw greater than a quarter-inch of rainfall yesterday (North Port, Punta Gorda and Kings Hwy. in Port Charlotte), so this protracted pattern has yielded some drought relief in a few locations. Unfortunately, most of Charlotte and Sarasota counties have seen over 8 inches of rainfall since Dec. 1 whereas much of Lee county has had less than half of that... so the best rains are not falling where they are most needed.