Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1123 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 3:36 pm Post subject: Predict the 2008 Hurricane Season
With the 2008 hurricane season right around the corner what is everybodys feeling on the type of tropical activity that will take place in the Atlantic Basin? I myself hope it is quiet and that Florida will be in the clear. Last year two cat 5's roared through the Carib (Felix, Dean) and I really would not want either of those type storms ending up on US soil. So what do you think? A mild, medium or hot season? _________________ Chris
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Cape Coral Online Weather
Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 269 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:41 pm Post subject: Re: Predict the 2008 Hurricane Season
It seems to me it's still a bit early to construct a viable assessment of the upcoming hurricane season. I'll have to wait until at least May to give a prediction worth anything!
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1123 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 10:33 pm Post subject: Re: Predict the 2008 Hurricane Season
Ofcourse it's a bit early but why not have a little fun and take a stab at it? To be honest, I really don't think at anytime you can determine what the season is going to be like until it's over. So why not crack a guesstimation and see how it pans out at year end? We did this last year and I believe some were correct. It's guessing and getting different feedback is interesting to read especially since the last few seasons have been calm for US soil. _________________ Chris
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Cape Coral Online Weather
Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 269 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2008 12:54 am Post subject: Re: Predict the 2008 Hurricane Season
OK, I'll opine a bit on some of the variables we may know a little about. First of all, I think we will return to slightly above-normal rainfall here in SW Florida during the summer because I do believe we will have longer periods of sustained high pressure to our northeast. This pattern establishes itself better when there is less interference from above... and we all know that relaxed winds at the upper-levels will allow more tropcial development to develop closer to home. Furthermore, this presumed stability would provide more favorable environments for cyclones should they originate or traverse our region. But this is such a tiny piece of the whole vast configuration of what makes and directs hurricans that it is borderline silly to discuss at this early juncture.
For whatever it is worth, I base my idea on the more "normal" summertime pattern (sustained Bermuda high pressure) largely on Hovmoller trends. I think they are instrumental because our climate is an enclosed cycle of events destined to repeat themselves over and over if we watch and study closely enough. Hey, those of us Hovmoller students were about the only ones out there calling for above-normal rainfall this winter. The CPC had the entire peninsula at "much below" for this winter. I know we haven't exactly had to break out sandbags here in the Cape, but areas all around us have been way above normal. Sarasota, Tampa, Orlando, North Port, Port Charlotte and even Miami have received far above average rainfall this winter. Much of the state of Georgia has greatly relieved their severe drought over the past 90 days.
Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 9:51 am Post subject: 2008 Hurricane season
I certainly am not a meteorologist, but I have noticed that in 06 and 07 we had almost no rain in the dry season and the hurricane season for us was very light. This year Florida has gotten some heavy rains in the dry season. I am hoping this is not a sign of a strong hurricane season to come.
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 8:19 pm Post subject: season storm number guess
OK , I'll take a guess too. Since we have gotten a decent amount of rain this winter, at least in the last month or two, I think the la nina is weakening, though I don't believe we'll be full throttle el nino this year either. That said, the trend all winter has been above average temps in the US, so I'd guess the waters surrounding it are too including the Caribbean. I'm no expert, and my reasoning may be completely flawed but I predict the first TS prior to June 1. For the Season...
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