Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:11 pm Post subject: HURRICANE WILMA....NOW TO THE END.....
I HAVE STARTED A NEW THREAD AS THE TITLE NO LONGER APPLIES.....I HOPE
This is a very cool microwave image of Wilma showing in the past 2 hours a REAL turn to the North in my opinion. If this trend continues, she will miss the yucatan Peninsula. In addition the eyewall replacement cycle has ended and re-strenghtening is likely tonight. I'll try the image thing again, if it doesn't work I'll post the link below...
Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:10 pm Post subject: Re: HURRICANE WILMA....NOW TO THE END.....
No I just think it will increase the chance it skimms the coast up by Cozumel and Cancun rather than moves inland. This would keep the storm stronger as it emerges in the Gulf. It is a question of timing now which will depend how sharply Wilma turns. There are 3 opportunities for systems from the North to grab her. One is occuring now but will be past her by tomorrow. So if she doesn't pick up a bit of speed tonight, she may bend back a bit more WNw for a time which would mean a Yucatan landfall and a much weaker storm for us. I am not changing my opinion yet as I do not have a better one yet I will conceed that FL landfall may be closer to Sunday night rather than Sunday Morning as I previously thought. (And I was a day later than the NHC at the time). This storm has her own agenda and Nothing is off the table at this point.
Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:53 pm Post subject: Re: HURRICANE WILMA....NOW TO THE END.....
While the previous Northward move has evolved into a NW drift, it may have been just enough to get the storm up to the Cosumel/ Cancun area before landfall. That being said, providing she doesn't lose anymore forward momentum, IMO being so close to the NE tip of the Peninsula, I would expect Wilma to bounce off the coast on a NNE heading temporarily to get around landfalling. After she clears the tip, the hurricane should readjust to the previous NW track until it gets picked up and recurved Gradually towards SW Florida. The projected stall by the NHC and some models would change this scenario drastically but I don't feel this is likely to happen. Notice the feed of clouds toward the north-northeast. A vigorous upper air storm over the Midwest is digging SE, and is also beginning to interact with Wilma as a steering agent. The storm is re-intensifying and should be a Cat 5 by morning.
Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:54 pm Post subject: Re: HURRICANE WILMA....NOW TO THE END.....
I do want to point out before I go to bed tonight that there has been yet another jog to the North during the past 90 min or so and if nothing else this evening IMO this storm has gven up any deviations further West. A logical reason for this is that the Western side of the circulation is over the Yucatan and is entraining drier air. The heavier convection is clearly weighted on the Eastern side of the eye over the open water. This imbalance can often lead to the center getting artificially tugged towards the deeper convection. If nothing else, as long as she doesn't stall, this should keep her off the Yucatan coast up to the Gulf....But it's going to be darn close nonetheless. You can keep an eye on the eye movement with the updating microwave satellite link I posted earlier...............Hasta Manana (Yucatan lingo
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:12 am Post subject: Re: HURRICANE WILMA....NOW TO THE END.....
Looking at the latest satellite immages with the excellent defined eye I think Wilma has already gained Cat 5 strenght again by now, and am curious to see the data gathered from the newest reccon flight. I think it will be a little surprise regarding the wind speed and pressure.
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