The 12Z GFS continues to trend west and brings Bertha very close to the Bahamas. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 8:34 am Post subject: Re: Bertha
The forecast tracks continue to shift west and Bertha is hanging on despite the cooler SST. By tonight Bertha should be reaching the area where the SST begin to increase.
_________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 9:30 pm Post subject: Re: Bertha
Euro actually shows Bertha evolving into a Perfect Storm scenario. Storm gets between Bermuda & Bahamas gets crushed by a cold upper air trough which forms a new non tropical low South of Cape Cod. This low entrains all of Bertha's heat energy, gradually becomes warm core and watch out Mark Waulberg. Likely.........no. Possible............absolutely. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 8:28 am Post subject: Re: Bertha
Ah...He gets all the gorgeous women in the world and throws them away like used paper towels. Let him drown for the sake of the rest of mankind _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:11 am Post subject: Re: Bertha
Bertha continues west and will now be passing over increasingly warmer waters. The models continue to flip flop around like a fish out of water so we still have no model consensus.
The NHC said it best at the 5am discussion today....QUOTE:... "WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER BY THE END OF THE FIVE-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD...THE MODELS DO NOT DEPICT A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH
THAT WOULD ACCELERATE BERTHA INTO THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. SO IT IS
FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF OR WHEN BERTHA WILL RECURVE." end QUOTE. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: Re: Bertha
There should be a trough moving across the NE/Mid Atlantic in the Wed-Fri time frame. It will not be very amplified as the Bermuda High will be establishing itself this week. Should this glorified front not induce Bertha to bend Northward, high pressure would rebuild to the north and force her westward again. Another wild card is the possibility of another wave on the heels of Bertha in a few days could cause the ridge to the South of the storm to weaken at the same time the ridge to the North is doing the same. This would trap the storm in a very weak flow and cause a stall or crawl later in the week. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 1:52 pm Post subject: Re: Bertha
Bertha is coming into Recon range.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 06 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-036
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK. (AMENDED)
A. POSSIBLE AIR FORCE FLIGHT ON TS BERTHA,
8/18Z, 20N 57W.
3. BEGIN 12 HRLY FIXES 9/12Z IF NECESSARY. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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