Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 10:20 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm # In Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #: NOAA2
Date/Time of Recon Report: July 20, 2008 13:53 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 17 ° 58 ' N 83 ° 51 ' W (17.97° N 83.85° W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 35 Knots (40.25 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 80 Nautical Miles (92 miles) From Center At Bearing 080°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 50 Knots (57.5 MPH) From 130°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 85 Nautical Miles (97.75 Miles) From Center At Bearing 080°
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1009 Millibars (29.795 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 23°C (73.4°F) / 450 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 24°C (75.2°F) / 463 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 22°C (71.6°F) / 28 C °C (82.4°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500 Feet
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles
Other Information:
1: SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FEET
2: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 50 KTS E Quadrant at 1324Z _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:30 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
GMZ089-202130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008
.SYNOPSIS...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18.4N 84.2W 1008 MB AT 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
IS MOVING NW AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50
KT. DOLLY WILL MOVE TO NEAR 19.7N 86.3W EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT...TO NEAR 21.1N 89.5W MON MORNING...THEN INTO THE SW
GULF NEAR 22.2N 92.2W MON NIGHT...AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
NEAR 23.0N 94.0W TUE MORNING...AND CONTINUE NW ACROSS THE SW
PORTION OF THE NW GULF ON WED. DOLLY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE FAR WRN GULF THU. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
GULF AND SW PART OF THE W GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE...AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN GULF WED AND THU. WEAK
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH THU.
$$
GMZ080-202130-
NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 28N LATE TUE THROUGH
EARLY THU...
.THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...N OF 28N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10
KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. S OF 28N E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S OF 27N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25
KT...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT MON NIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 8
FT...BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST SE PART. N OF
27N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT E PART
LATE. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL E PART
LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SPREADING FROM E TO W OVER S
PART.
.TUE THROUGH THU...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER EXPECTED S OF 28N...SHIFTING W OF AREA EARLY THU. N OF
28N E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE
THU. SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 11 FT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 8 FT LATE
THU. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SQUALLS S OF 28N.
$$
GMZ082-202130-
SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 21N MON THROUGH
WED...
.THIS AFTERNOON...S OF 22N E OF 94W E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4
TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 21N.
.TONIGHT...E OF 93W NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. W OF
93W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM
N AND 30 NM S SEMICIRLCE. HIGHEST WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50
KT...INCREASING TO 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT TUE AND TO 55 KT GUSTS
TO 65 KT WED. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER IN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS. HIGHEST SEAS 15 FT...BUILDING TO 18 FT FT WED.
ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS N OF 21N.
.THU...N OF 22N W OF 94W SE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT EARLY...SUBSIDING
TO 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE E TO SE
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KT S OF 20N. SEAS 6 TO 8
FT...EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FT S OF 20N. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SQUALLS FAR
NW PART EARLY ...MOVING W OF AREA.
$$
GMZ084-202130-
MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 22N...
.THIS AFTERNOON...S OF 22N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO
11 FT. N OF 24N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 5 TO
10 KT N OF 27N. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT 2 TO 3 FT N OF 27N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 24N...BECOMING NUMEROUS LATE.
.TONIGHT AND MON...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N AND
30 NM S SEMICIRLCE. HIGHEST WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER IN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. HIGHEST SEAS
15 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 24N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. N OF 24N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO E TO SE
10 TO 15 KT MON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT...BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT IN SE
SWELL. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 24N.
.MON NIGHT...S OF 25N W OF 87W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT EARLY
...DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT...SUBSIDING
TO 8 TO 10 FT LATE. ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS
5 TO 8 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SQUALLS S PART...MOVING W OF
AREA LATE.
.TUE...N OF 28N SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. S OF 28N SE
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED AND THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
$$
GMZ086-202130-
E GULF BETWEEN 81W AND 85W
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008
.THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...S OF 24N W OF 83W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FROM 24N TO 27N NE TO E WINDS 15 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. N OF 27N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2
FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 24N W OF 83W...BECOMING
NUMEROUS TONIGHT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N OF 27N SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO
4 FT. S OF 27N SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.WED AND THU...N OF 27N S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. S OF 27N
SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
FORECASTER AGUIRRE _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1479 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:49 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
000
WTNT24 KNHC 201539
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1545 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008
AT 1145 AM EDT...1545 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE
BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 84.2W AT 20/1545Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 175SE 100SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. _________________ Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 12:18 pm Post subject: Re: DOLLY
The surface circulation is partly exposed to the southwest of the deeper convection. Latest satellite images show an increase of convection closer to the center and if that trend continues it will aid in further intensification. The center could also be pulled under the developing deep convection. I would expect Dolly to continue to strengthen and any relocation of the center further to the north would cause a northward adjustment to the forecast track. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 2:30 pm Post subject: Re: DOLLY
WTNT34 KNHC 201758
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
...DOLLY ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...400 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY
ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP
TO 8 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...84.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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