ONE MORE CARIBBEAN ENCORE ?????

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_...im8ir.html

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

Looks like option 2 is most likely now as TD 27 has lost it's closed circulation and is quickly moving towards the growing area of disturbed weather along the Centrel American coast. This will most likely entrain the moisture/energy from TD 27 and develop. In a way I am disapointed that TD 27 didn't get 5mph stronger to be named which would have made the 2 storm prediction verify.......Oh well........thems the tropics.......a mind of their own Smile

chris

That sure is a huge area of disturbed weather down south! I'm posting the latest from the NHC outlook.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED 100 MILES OR SO OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS IN THIS AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY.
_________________
Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

It may indeed move inland but with that big trof digging it will not stay down there long. It still may well get pulled North and develop

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

Looking at tonights Carribean satellite images, it shows the area of disturbed weather showers and storms off Central America is very close to becoming a depression. This is a combination of what is left of TD 27 and what might have become TD 28. If it does form into another TD it will be interesting to see what NHC calls it. Look at the outflow around the system.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_...im8ir.html

It looks very healthy and upon developing a closed circulation we should be looking at a true tropical system. It may even skip the TD phase being that the hurricane hunter found TS winds already. That would sure save them some headaches in naming the system. Perhaps the most important factor at this time is the SE side of the trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This stronger wind, while typically inhibiting systems, is aiding the outflow and allowing the storms to breath. At the same time the ridge of high pressure centered just SE of the complex is providing the calm environment for organization. Sure, a better place for the convection would be under the ridge but overall the conditions seem favorable for a late season tropical storm anyway. Get ready for Gamma. Once it forms we will have to watch in case the digging trough picks it up and slings it NE across Cuba.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER
TODAY. IF ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST AND
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER BEVEN

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

Ok, wll in my opinion 2 questions have been answered this morning. First, we do have a tropical storm near 16 North and 85 West. Second the NHC has indicated it will be a regeneration of TD # 27

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

Cumbaya, my lord........Cumbaya.......Me ...the NHC......the GFDL......all on the same page now.......It's Gamma time.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic...shtml?5day

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

Gamma should continue to intensify Friday night and into Saturday. The storm will reach a point very close to the coast of Belize on Saturday. If Gamma makes landfall along the coast of Belized then it will weaken. However, if Gamma moves slow and then turns more north as some computer models are suggesting then it will stay over water and will have the opportunity to strenghten further. Water temperatures over the Gulf of Honduras and the northwest Caribbean are warm enough for Gamma to intensify but not as warm as they were when Willma was around a few weeks ago. Therefore it is unlikely that Gamma will become a real strong system. However, if Gamma can stay over water during the next couple of days and have only minimal interation with the coastline it could strengthen to hurricane force.(cat1) The track that Gamma takes is highly dependent on the orientation and strength of an upper level trough that will swing down into the Gulf of Mexico during tomorrow night and Sunday. Current thinking is that a high pressure ridge to the north will cause Gamma to move slowly west northwest tonight into tomorrow. Then this ridge will start to weaken as one upper level trough swings across the northwest Gulf tomorrow then the stronger trough starts to dive southward during tomorrow night. In response to this weakening Gamma will start to move northwest then north during later tomorrow and tomorrow night. This thinking takes Gamma through the Yucatan Straits on Sunday then northeast across south Florida on Monday

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER
457 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM GAMMA COULD AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXISTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM GAMMA, LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA, COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. ALL LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORIES FROM THENATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GAMMA. THE FUTURE TRACK OF GAMMA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.