Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 9:15 pm Post subject: Re: IKE
Somebody (Lou, Stacy Stewart, Obama) explain whats going on around here...... I am totally confused...... Modeling completely misses the intensification of Ike until it moves to over Hanna's current position. a very strange occurrence since Hanna is a large storm that is definitely sapping energy out of the SW Atlantic environment. And then it wants to turn Ike into a monster (though it's almost there already) over the same waters that Hanna will supposedly barely deepen??? This is why you have to throw the models aside sometimes and just forecast the pattern. Hanna is now back tucked underneath her convection and watch her go. She is a cane at 11pm and the official forecast intensity will be playing catch up to my idea tomorrow into friday.................... _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:06 am Post subject: IKE´s Track
SW46: this was somehow my question, as IKE is in the same waters where Hanna did not strengthen and he is even getting stronger -with Hanna previously there before ???
also the initial path for Hanna was to hit Cuba on the eastern side, before the path turned north....
Anyhow, my major concern is: will IKe get into the Gulf and be a threat for SWFL ??
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 5:40 am Post subject: Re: IKE´s Track
Speedy wrote:
SW46: this was somehow my question, as IKE is in the same waters where Hanna did not strengthen and he is even getting stronger -with Hanna previously there before ???
also the initial path for Hanna was to hit Cuba on the eastern side, before the path turned north....
Anyhow, my major concern is: will IKe get into the Gulf and be a threat for SWFL ??
Difference is there is a ridge over Ike while there was and still is a lot of shear over Hanna..........And no, I don't see Ike as a threat for SW FL, it shouldn't get to the Gulf. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:18 pm Post subject: Re: IKE
12Z GFDL-FURTHER WEST
12Z HWRF-FURTHER WEST
12Z CMC-FURTHER WEST
12Z GFS-FURTHER WEST
12Z UKM-FURTHER WEST _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 3:10 pm Post subject: Re: IKE
12Z ECMWF-FURTHER WEST
12Z NOGAPS-FURTHER WEST. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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