HANNA

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

Hanna"s drifting to the SE this afternoon.....in my mind spares Florida from the storm making landfall in the state (with the exception of up near Jacksonville which as we all know...just doesn't happen). The ridge that will start steering Hanna tomorrow will initially build to her East. This will have the initial effect of turning her more North than west. On Thursday, the ridge will start building in to her North which will then turn her NW, parallel to the Florida coast (I'll guess no closer than 60 miles). She then comes makes landfall just North of Hilton Head Island as a Cat 2/3 and exits the US just North or South of Boston around 2am Sunday morning. This track will bring tropical storm conditions all the way to NYC Saturday evening. Once north of S. Virginia, the storm will transform to a heavy rain maker on the west side of the path and a squally tropical storm with hurricane force gusts as far north as the New Jersey coast.
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No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once

capecodder · Posted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 6:29 pm Post subject: Re: HANNA

Looks like Hanna's Northward treck is going to be mighty close to the coast..A Floyd like scare in the cards?

ccstorms · Posted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 6:51 pm Post subject: Re: HANNA

capecodder · Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:18 pm Post subject: Re: HANNA

Now (Wednesday afternoon) Hanna progged to clip the Carolinas, and possibly ending up in my back yard on Saturday.

At one of the resorts up here there a big wedding planned on the beach with lots of international guests.

My comment to those folks" Never plan an outdoor wedding in hurricane season."

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:30 pm Post subject: Re: HANNA

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

Hanna is responding to the ridge today as I thought (riding north not west) She will begin to turn more NW tomorrow in response to the ridge building to her north as an upper level low off Cape Cod lifts out. Yesterday's thoughts about Hanna not getting within 60 miles of the Florida coast seem to bear fruit as the NHC has dropped all their watches. Once the storm turned east, it made no sense for it to get close enough to Florida (except maybe Jax) to bring hurricane conditions to the peninsula. Being on the east side of the Bahamas and heading north, it is much more likely she would ride up just east of the islands which are configured in a SE-NW fashion rather than cross through the chain. While I still pretty much agree with the 5pm NHC track, I feel she will come in west of Hatteras and go up thru NYC and out just south of BOS. I also think they are greatly underestimating her intensity as I see her in the 115-120 mph range with landfall being delayed further North. We are way apart here so we will just have to see who gets the prize.........
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No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

Come on now girl..........5mph...you are making me look as bad as you look as a TS Laughing

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No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 9:09 am Post subject: Re: HANNA

Hanna is looking quite pathetic right now as it continues to entrain dry air into the circulation and the low level center is now completely exposed. Latest recon passes show weaker winds and the NHC will likely lower the max winds at the next advisory.
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This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

capecodder · Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 1:41 pm Post subject: Re: HANNA

On the WV loop, you can see convection finally developing, (BUT) at the same time, dry air is still being entrained. Which will win out?

And to further complicate matters, here comes monsterous IKE barging into the scene. Will IKE kick HANNA out? LOts of questions, no quick answers. Just watch & wait, I guess.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1197

Hanna is looking better tonight (yea, I thought that last night too without thinking she would entrain drier air downsloping of the big mountains of Hispanola). But I think that now she is moving away and over virgin 85 degree water, a period of rapid intensification is still very possible before landfall. If she can hold the convection she's fired up in the past few hours until morning, I think it's game on. As for Ike, he may aid Hanna if he can pump the ridge to her north, but I 'm confident she will get out of the way of Ike's influence
_________________
No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once