Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 1:48 pm Post subject: FRED
Well organized tropical wave near the African coast is now Invest 96L. Location is 12.5N, 18.0W, Winds 25 Kts, Pressure 1007 MB. Code Orange. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Last edited by ccstorms on Thu Sep 17, 2009 7:50 pm; edited 3 times in total
Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 2:27 pm Post subject: Re: FRED
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1905 UTC SUN SEP 6 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 2:36 pm Post subject: Re: FRED
96L has come off Africa further south than the last few waves and that may mean it has less dry air and wind shear to deal with. The SHIPS models forecast 96L to strengthen to a Hurricane and the SHIPS shear forecast shows low to moderate shear through the current forecast cycle.
Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 4:56 pm Post subject: Re: FRED
LATEST IMAGE SHOWS A VERY WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WILL INCREASING CONVECTION AND BANDING. SHOULD GO TO CODE RED BY 8 PM AND IF THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES IT WILL BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.
Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 6:51 am Post subject: Re: FRED
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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