ONE MORE CARIBBEAN ENCORE ?????

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1101

Just when you thought it was safe to take the shutters down.......IMO it appears development is likely in the Central Carribean next week with a T.S. possible in the NW Carrib. by next Fri. Meanwhile, a real cold front and digging trof will be hearalding in the coldest weather in the Eastern U.S. this fall season at the same time. Depending on how far West the Eastern side of this trof sets up, will determine how far NW this system moves before being picked up and whisked North and NE. Remember my discussion from last week regarding the possible blocking pattern and cold backing in from the NE. This scenario would block the trof from progressing Eastward and potentially lock it in place for an extended period. If the East side locks in around or West of 80, things could get very interesting around here by next weekend. Rolling Eyes

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1101

ABNT20 KNHC 111628
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER PANAMA... COSTA
RICA... AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA.
CONDITIONS MAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1101

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EST on November 12, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A broad area of low pressure centered over Panama is producing
extensive cloudiness and scattered showers and thunderstorms from
northwestern Colombia westward over most of the southwestern
Caribbean Sea... Panama... Costa Rica... and eastern Nicaragua.
Shower activity has increased and become slightly better organized
today... and conditions could gradually become more favorable for
some additional development to occur as the system drifts northward
over the next few days.

Forecaster Stewart

OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 11.5N 81.5W AT 14/2000Z.

chris

This system is very broad and spread out but it wouldnt surprise at all to see this storm turn into a TS. You can see how it is moving north on the satellite loop but moving very slowly. This would give it more time to get its act together. It appears the strongest part is several hundred miles south of Jamaica around lat. 80.
_________________
Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral Online Weather

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1101

Looks like 2 systems to develop this week......Disturbed weather near Barbados looks to fight off shear and develop moving Nw thru Carribean this week. By next weekend at latter portion of Nov. to have 2 systems at the same time is amazing...............

chris

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY... RADAR DATA... AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 85 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. LUCIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER... AND ST. LUCIA REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. IF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER...THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER STEWART
_________________
Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral Online Weather

chris · Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2005 10:54 pm Post subject: TD 27

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
0300Z MON NOV 14 2005

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 62.7W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
_________________
Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral Online Weather

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1101

One down.....One to go......... Rolling Eyes

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1101

Gamma is looking healthy despite the continuing shear factor. But as in the graphic below it will be moving into a favorable area in the next few days and I see no reason it won't become a Cat 2 hurricane....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-...wg8sht.GIF

As far as Delta is concerned, while I am not yet ruling it out off Honduras, it has not gotten better organized and the closer Gamma approaches the less likely it will develop......

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser...t&m=27

My worry is the sharp trof digging down into the Central Gulf Coast this weekend may grab Gamma and slingshot it North or NE before it goes into Central America. If this happens, the shear may start tearing the storm up or like Wilma, it can align the jet stream with the storm and help ventilate and maintain it as it whips to the NE.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1101

Still quite a bit of activity off Central America tonight. Do the 2 play off each other and no big deal or does one entrain the other and go to town?

[img]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlanim8ir.html[/img]