Ivan type system to be watched

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

A low that will move off the Carolina coast this weekend will pull a Hurricane Ivan move (turn to the South) and be sitting right off Florida or NW Bahamas early next week. While I still feel the SW Gulf is the best candidate for an early season surprise, the above normall SST's off the East Coast also bear watching. Much will depend on the lifting out of the NE Trof and how it interacts with the system..............

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

No................that moisture is part of the same band over us now. It is quickly riding along the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream (STJ). There is way too much shear now for tropical development. That being said, as the system from off the Carolina coast drifts South, it will drive that STJ further South. The Western Gulf will become an area where trof splits wind up. This will invite tropical moisure from the Pacific side of Mexico to be pulled into the SW Gulf and could very well lead to some development over the next 2 weeks.