Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1383 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:11 pm Post subject: Re: STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ROLLS OFF AFRICA
That wave does seem impressive compared to the others I've seen this year. If you run the loop on it you can almost see circulation, maybe just a tad. I wish the loops on the extreme eastern Atlantic would update a little quicker (maybe once per hour instead of every 6 hours) to get a better idea of what it's doing. It will be interesting to see if it starts to get some definition and some strength in the next 12-24 hours. Is there much wind shear around to beat it up or does it have a clean runway for takeoff? I haven't looked at the wind shear models yet. _________________ Chris
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Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1383 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:44 pm Post subject: Re: STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ROLLS OFF AFRICA
Atleast the NHC knows its there. I'm surprised they didnt have much more to say about it on tonights 1030 advisory.
Quote:
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 7:29 am Post subject: Re: STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ROLLS OFF AFRICA
The wave has lost all of it's deep convection which is to be expected being that it's only mid July. It's dealing with less then ideal conditions such as dry air, african dust, and SST's below the threshold needed for TC genisis. The structure of the wave is still good and it's something to keep an eye on as it chugs along to the west. Once it passes 50 West it will enter an area of higher SST's and somewhat better conditions. As we get closer to August the waves exiting Africa will hold together longer and longer and as happens each year some will go on to become storms. It's still too early in the season to expect development east of 60W...but it's interesting to watch. _________________ Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 7:42 am Post subject: Re: STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ROLLS OFF AFRICA
Chris wrote
Quote:
I wish the loops on the extreme eastern Atlantic would update a little quicker (maybe once per hour instead of every 6 hours) to get a better idea of what it's doing.
you can view a single image or run a loop. Select sector 5 and you can watch all the systems moving across Africa. enjoy! _________________ Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1383 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 3:16 pm Post subject: Re: STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ROLLS OFF AFRICA
Thanks Lou. That is exactly what I was looking for. Everything that I ran into on the web was updated every 6 hours and this loop that you provided will help out a lot. Wave looks much less organized compared to yesterday. If we were to fast forward time about a month to 6 weeks it probably would have been a whole different ballgame. Maybe it will get its act together once it gets farther away from Africa and closer to warmer waters. We shall see. _________________ Chris
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Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 8:10 pm Post subject: Re: STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ROLLS OFF AFRICA
Howdy..............I'm back in the saddle. As alluded to last week before I left the building.........the Eastern Pacific would invite the carribean energy across Mexico to create conditions favorable for development...And low and behold, a hurricane and a tropical storm in the 5 days i'm gone Anyway, African wave will have to fight African dust and cool water patch...........not concerned with it unless it holds together enough to make it to the east coast about 8 days from now when we will probably have another B North trof in place inviting anything out there into another Carolina/ New England deluge. Nothing out there closer to home exciting me either. Would be surprised if no named storm by the end of July along East Coast or SW Gulf. My quieter season scenario still holding true.....(will Dr. Gray add me to his team at the end of season?? ) Biggest weather story is big heat wave engulfing mid west and eastern US for next 5 days..............lots of 100+ temps. And as mentioned earlier, extreme lack of moisture in the western half of US (particularly SW) to cause crop problems and continued big wildfires.
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1383 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Sat Jul 15, 2006 8:37 am Post subject: Re: STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ROLLS OFF AFRICA
Welcome back SW. Hey by the way, did you go to Mexico? I know how those storms like to follow you. Pacific has been busy and the Atlantic quiet. Still early in the season but a heck of a lot slower this year compared to last in the Atlantic at this time. Weren't we on Zeta around this time? j/k Anyhow, Florida appears to have a patch of dry air for a change.
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Anyway, African wave will have to fight African dust and cool water patch...........not concerned with it unless it holds together enough to make it to the east coast about 8 days from now when we will probably have another B North trof in place inviting anything out there into another Carolina/ New England deluge. Nothing out there closer to home exciting me either. Would be surprised if no named storm by the end of July along East Coast or SW Gulf. My quieter season scenario still holding true.....(will Dr. Gray add me to his team at the end of season?? 
) Biggest weather story is big heat wave engulfing mid west and eastern US for next 5 days..............lots of 100+ temps. And as mentioned earlier, extreme lack of moisture in the western half of US (particularly SW) to cause crop problems and continued big wildfires.
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