Joined: May 21, 2006 Posts: 132 Location: Southeast Florida
Posted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 5:04 am Post subject: Tropical Storm Chris
000
WTNT43 KNHC 010859
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA THIS MORNING ESTIMATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
CHRIS...WHILE ALSO DECREASING ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY OF T2.5/35 KT
FROM TAFB...A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5 FROM SAB...AND TWO CONSECUTIVE
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES 35-36 KT. SINCE THE 00Z SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH DEPTH
AND ORGANIZATION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08 KT...BASED MAINLY ON MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. NOW THAT CHRIS HAS
BECOME A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS
LOCATED NORTH OF CHRIS AND WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FUTURE
TRACK OF CHRIS HINGES HEAVILY UPON JUST HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE
BECOMES. MY FEELING NOW IS THAT CHRIS SHOULD REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE 120-H FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS IN
CONTRAST TO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL. BY 72
HOURS...CHRIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND BE DRIVEN
WESTWARD OVER OR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...OR DISSIPATE COMPLETELY.
PART OF THE RAPID DISSIPATION FORECAST BY THE MODELS MAY BE DUE TO
POOR INITIALIZATION. A STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT LARGER CYCLONE MAY
RESULT IN A DIFFERENT PROGNOSIS OF THE 06Z MODEL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH IT NOW
EXTENDS OUT TO 120 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN
THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING CHRIS IS FORECAST BY ALL
THE MODELS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
SLOW SLOW STRENGTHENING. THE MAIN DILEMMA IS JUST HOW STRONG CHRIS
WILL BECOME. CHRIS IS FORECAST TO PASS BETWEEN TWO MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE TWO LOWS
AND THEN MOVE THEM IN TANDEM WESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS... WITH CHRIS
LIKELY WEDGED IN BETWEEN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR
A LOW SHEAR PATTERN THAT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR MORE STRENGTHENING
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT ONLY IF CHRIS REMAINS EXACTLY
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A REVERSAL OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS
AND GFDL MODELS.
Posted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:59 am Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm Chris
I continue to feel that if anybody should be leery of Chris..........it is TEXAS. Lots of scenarios for this system including being ripped to pieces over Hispanola...........being ventilated by upper low..............being sheared by upper low.............Either way, while system could very well affect S. Florida or Keys this weekend, I don't believe it will be anything disruptive to Florida..(especially the West Coast). If it avoids the islands, it is possible to be approaching minimal hurricane strength as it passes thru the Bahamas, but it is in the Gulf that this system would realize it's potential..............a good chance of maintaining/increasing strength all the way to landfall
Posted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:06 pm Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm Chris
Recon report-Vortex Message
on board Met visual estimate of surface winds is 55 kts. Max flight level winds measured so far at 53 kts. pressure 1007 mb.
000
URNT12 KNHC 011910
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/18:50:50Z
B. 17 deg 39 min N
060 deg 43 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 55 kt
E. 128 deg 010 nm
F. 179 deg 053 kt
G. 128 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 23 C/ 298 m
J. 25 C/ 301 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 10
MAX FL WIND 53 KT SE QUAD 18:47:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT _________________ Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Joined: May 21, 2006 Posts: 132 Location: Southeast Florida
Posted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 4:39 pm Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm Chris
I expect the winds to increase in the 5PM advisory.The System is looking more organized with thunderstorms around the center.Perhapes from 40mph to 45mph.
Posted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 5:14 pm Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm Chris
right on cue.
000
WTNT63 KNHC 012106
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
505 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006
BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CHRIS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 60 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY...
PRIMARILY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES
IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
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