Joined: May 09, 2006 Posts: 108 Location: Bonita Springs Fl.
Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 10:41 am Post subject: Homegrown Hurricanes
There has been some good input here about the threat of homegrown hurricanes this year. Obviously these storms could cause additional and/ or unique problems, because of the accelerated time to impact. Can anyone comment on some of the major past storms affecting S. Florida, that might fall into the homegrown category. The one that comes to mind for me is the 1935 Keys storm. I think that started in the Bahamas and the rest was history. Also, what would be considered a homegrown hurricane? Would this be a system that is named with-in so many miles, or W. of a certain longitude point, using S. Fl. as home ? Thanks, Jim
I am not too historically adept........ Lou (CCstorms) seems to have an excellent handle on that department and maybe he can put up some stats for you.................. As far as what is considered "homegrown", I don't believe there is a set parameter established. I personally consider any system that develops and gets named in the SW Atlantic (say from Puerto Rico on West)...to the Gulf of Mexico and South to off the Yucatan Peninsula. Others might have a smaller scope but it's personal opinion I guess...........
As Jeff said and I agree, there is no 'set in stone' area of development that is portrayed as the home-grown zone. I usually use 75W as my own rule of thumb, and that includes the southwest Caribbean all the way south to Panama. When conditions in the central or eastern Atlantic are not conducive for development, many of the tropical waves develop much further west as they reach more favorable conditions. Can they be as powerful as a pure Cape Verde system? You bet!! You only have to go back to the 2005 season to see a prime example.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl.../track.gif
The term 'home grown' is also used to describe tropical cyclones that form off the east coast of the U.S. or in the Gulf from stalled fronts, or troughs of low pressure that 'split' and leave a piece of energy behind. There are also cases of tropical cyclone development forming from a Mesoscale Convective Complex that moves offshore from the U.S. mainland into the gulf or off the southeast coast. Another storm from 05 was Rita which formed a little further east at 70W.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl.../track.gif
Joined: May 09, 2006 Posts: 108 Location: Bonita Springs Fl.
Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 2:11 pm Post subject: Re: Homegrown Hurricanes
Thanks. Seems like a rough area of 1000 miles on in. With the big High Pressure system sitting out there east of us, and from what was said earlier about homegrown possibilities...I will be paying attention. Look foward to your information these upcoming weeks. Might get kind of interesting, to put it lightly.
Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 4:35 pm Post subject: Re: Homegrown Hurricanes
Wthrwatcher wrote:
Thanks. Seems like a rough area of 1000 miles on in. With the big High Pressure system sitting out there east of us, and from what was said earlier about homegrown possibilities...I will be paying attention. Look foward to your information these upcoming weeks. Might get kind of interesting, to put it lightly.
Canadian still insisting the wave out at 50 W busts the shear zone and becomes a hurricane............Still don't see it happening but the model is not waffling on this system...........We'll keep an eye on it just in case...
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum