Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:51 am Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN
000
WTNT34 KNHC 141433
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2007
...DEAN FORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1030
MILES...1660 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1490 MILES...2400 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...11.7 N...39.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:07 am Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN
000
WTNT44 KNHC 141433
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND ALSO THAT
THE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. DEAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER
THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL LOCATED TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS DEAN. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A HURRICANE
WITH 100 TO 110 KNOTS IN FIVE DAYS.
DEAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING
WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...2 TO 3 DAYS...DEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE
SOME RELIABLE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP
THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND OTHERS SHOW A
WEAKER RIDGE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE
CENTER...AND NOT BECAUSE WE HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST REASONING.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: May 09, 2006 Posts: 111 Location: Bonita Springs Fl.
Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:34 am Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN
The GFDL/NHC track lines look pretty ominous for the moment. Definately so, for the island folks. Do you find the GFDL to be a fairly reliable model ?? If this system can pass just NE of the D.R. it could really pump up. I also see the tracks going through the Hebert square (now) and even though some think this is nonsense, many storms that go through there impact S. Fl. Any thoughts on GFDL appreciated. Now that this storm is named, I am starting to pay more attention. Tks. Jim
Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:50 pm Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN
Wthrwatcher wrote:
The GFDL/NHC track lines look pretty ominous for the moment. Definately so, for the island folks. Do you find the GFDL to be a fairly reliable model ?? If this system can pass just NE of the D.R. it could really pump up. I also see the tracks going through the Hebert square (now) and even though some think this is nonsense, many storms that go through there impact S. Fl. Any thoughts on GFDL appreciated. Now that this storm is named, I am starting to pay more attention. Tks. Jim
This storm is still way out there to worry which model has the best handle on it. My strategy for eventual path towards/into the US is to predict the position/strength of the high pressure which will eventually steer it. Right now, IMO the high will steer this storm into Florida unless it stays South of Cuba. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:30 pm Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN
Wow......this baby is cooking along. At this pace it is not going to have time to gain latitude before it passes underneath Florida. And with the added ridging behind Erin in the Gulf, this system may very well wind up taking a path very similar to Gilbert (Into NE Mexico). Very good news for Florida.... But don't let your guard down as the next wave is rearing it's ugly head and the upper flow will still favor Florida another 10 days down the road _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:34 pm Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN
SW46TER wrote:
This storm is still way out there to worry which model has the best handle on it. My strategy for eventual path towards/into the US is to predict the position/strength of the high pressure which will eventually steer it. Right now, IMO the high will steer this storm into Florida unless it stays South of Cuba.
No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
You are getting old, still throwing snowballs up there?
I did stay twice at a Holiday Inn Express, but didn't help a bit, neither in forecasting nor chopper-flying
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:37 pm Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN
GFS spits out a 38 for me Sunday morning.............Might beat your coldest winter morning down there next year on August 19th.... _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Joined: Jun 20, 2005 Posts: 512 Location: Cape Coral, Fl.
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:07 pm Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN
Nah! Coldest winter day will be 1/27/08 with a low of 34 at page field and 31 at SWR
That being said, the latest cordinates show Dean in the past 6 hrs. moving .7 n and 1.9 w. This represents the most northern shift yet. The Canadian model appear usless as it is just now picking Dean up.
GFS shows Dean moving somewhat south of the ridge. Is there some room in the model for it to move a little further north?
NGP shows crossing the Yucatan Pen and UKM suprisingly shows hardly anything!
All in all, does anyone see anything differnt than the stated forecast? As always, looks like the forecast will change as time passes.
Wait, watch and learn
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Definately so, for the island folks. Do you find the GFDL to be a fairly reliable model ?? If this system can pass just NE of the D.R. it could really pump up. I also see the tracks going through the Hebert square (now) and even though some think this is nonsense, many storms that go through there impact S. Fl. Any thoughts on GFDL appreciated. Now that this storm is named, I am starting to pay more attention. Tks. Jim
But don't let your guard down as the next wave is rearing it's ugly head and the upper flow will still favor Florida another 10 days down the road 
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