Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:44 pm Post subject: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
This is a forecasting headache but I'm going to go with development beginning in the Bahamas as the northern portion of the Caribbean wave starts to fire up and eventually encounters the developing cut-off low which is now off the northeast Florida coast. The future cut-off low is in the form of a Mesoscale complex that's still connected to the southern portion of the frontal trough, .... and which has a nice mid-level circulation. The most energy appears to be in this area rather than the Caribbean. Models are split between development in the Bahamas or the NW Caribbean and a few are even showing two separate systems. The Bahama system should cross Florida into the east gulf where it should begin to spin up and I don't think it will be in a big hurry to move away. This would be a good chance for big time rainfall and hopefully it will continue west before it really gets cranking wind wise. Texas may have to deal with a Hurricane by the end of the week. One other point....the remnants (or more) of Ingrid will be arriving in the Bahamas in a few days with another piece of energy to throw into the mix. Should be an interesting week ahead especially after we just witnessed how quickly a system can intensify in the Gulf in a low shear environment and very warm sst's. _________________ Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:02 pm Post subject: Re: Something is going to pop.
ccstorms wrote:
This is a forecasting headache but I'm going to go with development beginning in the Bahamas as the northern portion of the Caribbean wave starts to fire up and eventually encounters the developing cut-off low which is now off the northeast Florida coast. The future cut-off low is in the form of a Mesoscale complex that's still connected to the southern portion of the frontal trough, .... and which has a nice mid-level circulation. The most energy appears to be in this area rather than the Caribbean. Models are split between development in the Bahamas or the NW Caribbean and a few are even showing two separate systems. The Bahama system should cross Florida into the east gulf where it should begin to spin up and I don't think it will be in a big hurry to move away. This would be a good chance for big time rainfall and hopefully it will continue west before it really gets cranking wind wise. Texas may have to deal with a Hurricane by the end of the week. One other point....the remnants (or more) of Ingrid will be arriving in the Bahamas in a few days with another piece of energy to throw into the mix. Should be an interesting week ahead especially after we just witnessed how quickly a system can intensify in the Gulf in a low shear environment and very warm sst's.
_________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:08 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
What is going on off Florida is a big concern. Up to 10 inches of rain is occurring on the northeast coast. This is happenning because the northeast wind is ramming into the coast and the convergence causes the piling up of air and the heavy rain. But that surge southwest is coming across Florida and represents the starting of the backing of the upper trof. The trof should entrain energy out of the Caribbean and then develop a system that will impact the Texas coast this weekend or early next week with tropical-storm, and possibly (especially this year) hurricane conditions. By the way......where has TCC been? It's finally his time to shine and he's M.I.A....... _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Joined: Sep 01, 2007 Posts: 106 Location: Front Royal VA
Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:30 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
Questions: Why does the CMC model go hog wild with the weather east of Florida, turing it into a hurricane? and slamming it into East Central Florida in 72 hours. What does CMC represent? Is that the Canadian model? Is it any good? Thanks.
Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:41 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
ccstorms wrote:
The Canadian will spin up a toilet flush into a Cat 5.
Is that toilet flush West of 65 ? If so........I'm in on the development... _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:54 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
SW46TER wrote:
ccstorms wrote:
The Canadian will spin up a toilet flush into a Cat 5.
Is that toilet flush West of 65 ? If so........I'm in on the development...
Once off the Florida west coast we want this system to boogie on west. Of concern is some models showing it hanging around and or moving sloooowly west. _________________ Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:44 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
ccstorms wrote:
SW46TER wrote:
ccstorms wrote:
The Canadian will spin up a toilet flush into a Cat 5.
Is that toilet flush West of 65 ? If so........I'm in on the development...
Once off the Florida west coast we want this system to boogie on west. Of concern is some models showing it hanging around and or moving sloooowly west.
The high in the NE is over Northern NE and is moving east at a snails pace. An upper "heat ridge" will be lodged over the Tennesee Valley as it gets displaced eastward by a digging trof out west. Steering currents should be very weak as I don't see any front in the next 7-10 days that will make it far enough south to change the pattern _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:04 pm Post subject: Re: SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
SW46TER wrote:
ccstorms wrote:
SW46TER wrote:
ccstorms wrote:
The Canadian will spin up a toilet flush into a Cat 5.
Is that toilet flush West of 65 ? If so........I'm in on the development...
Once off the Florida west coast we want this system to boogie on west. Of concern is some models showing it hanging around and or moving sloooowly west.
The high in the NE is over Northern NE and is moving east at a snails pace. An upper "heat ridge" will be lodged over the Tennesee Valley as it gets displaced eastward by a digging trof out west. Steering currents should be very weak as I don't see any front in the next 7-10 days that will make it far enough south to change the pattern
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