7PM Thurs Update.......

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

Katrina is now moving ashore just South of Ft. Lauderdale. The eye will be completely onshore by 8PM. Unlike the local meteorologists, I do not feel this storm will substantially weaken over land. There are several reasons for this:

1) As stated yesterday, the storm will be traversing Alligator Alley....a very wet, swampy area. The normal frictional effects of land on a hurricane will not come into play here over this terrain IMO.

2) This is not PRESENTLY an intense hurricane. A minimal hurricane does not have the same structural needs as a well developed intense storm. This storm is used to dealing with adversity and will treat the swampland as such. How does it overcome this?

3) The storm has started moving WSW. This direction cuts back the amount of land over which it must travel to get into the Gulf. The storm is sensing this IMO. If you notice,on the INF. Sat Pics, in the last couple of hours, intense feeder bands have wrapped into the center from off the Gulf West of Fort Myers. The storm is using all available water sources to sustain itself. Watch the deep red convection in the core of the storm as it crosses the Everglades. I would not be surprised if the deep red area stayed the same or even expanded a bit more while over land. It is the end game Friday-Sat night when the storm starts turning North which will decide how bad we get hit here on the Cape. There is no doubt in my mind this storm will wind up at least a Cat 2 if it hugs our coast and a Cat 3-Cat 4 if it takes it's time turning and winds up 150 miles offshore headed for (dare I say) Pensicola..............More Later............Any Questions...feel free, I'll be monitoring the site all evening

porkerp · Experienced Member Joined: Jun 09, 2005 Posts: 122

it may be worse for the panhandle, but i hope the farther out to sea scenario happens. The storm does seem to be persistently working its way further to the south. With the weather already going downhill soon, it would be like getting caught with your pants down for the west coast of florida to have a strong cat 1 or 2 storm hug the coast. No time to prepare for it... just hope for the best.

Just saw on the weather channel Jim cantori said he thinks the storm felt like a cat 2 with the way the conditions felt when it came ashore. They said 2 people were already killed from the storm.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...EYE OF KATRINA CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH
AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH WITH 80 MPH WINDS...PORT EVERGLADES JUST
REPORTED GUSTS TO 92 MPH WINDS...

NOT BAD FOR A STORM NOBODY GAVE A CHANCE ON SUNDAY!!!! NOW LET'S SEE HOW WELL SHE MAINTAINS HERSELF AND IF THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE BOTH COASTS GOES BONKERS

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

Climatologically, the panhandle scenario is greatly favored over my hug the coast track. I am giving you my gut feeling which has been working well for me so far regarding this storm. My love of weather is rooting for the quick turn while my love of my pool cage is willing it to Pensicola Laughing

porkerp · Experienced Member Joined: Jun 09, 2005 Posts: 122

This radar loop shows what jeff was talking about with all of the precipitation pulling into the hurricane from the south side of the storm down by the keys.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS....kamx.shtml

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

The eye is completely over land now. Look at the storm consolidating it's energy around the center over the past hour

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric...region=FLS

You can see the darker colors exploading around the center and also to the South over the keys. that convection (feeder band ) to the South is trying to merge with the convection in the center. This will help sustain the core of the storm at the expense of the Northen side as the energy is really lopsided to the South now. This can also have the effect of at least temporarily pulling the center southward closer to the water. I am watching for this..............

porkerp · Experienced Member Joined: Jun 09, 2005 Posts: 122

you are right feff, the radar is showing heavier rain around the eye now that it is over land. Strange Exclamation

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

the storm is consolidating and using the nearby warm water heat source to sustain the intensity around the inner core. As long as this continues, as I expect it will, when she re-emerges into open water, intensification will begin almost instantly. It's almost like it's alive......

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

Not for nothing, but it appears to me like the eye has picked up some speed over land. If you look closely at the miami zoom radar and follow the not very well defined eye, it is a good distance inland now from an hour ago. I'm curious for the next NHC update

porkerp · Experienced Member Joined: Jun 09, 2005 Posts: 122

i think it smells that hot gulf water on the other side and is hurrying up to get there Shocked