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Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather: Forums

Cape Coral Online Weather :: View topic - CRISTOBAL
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CRISTOBAL
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 1876
Location: Cape Coral
PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:28 pm    Post subject: CRISTOBAL Reply with quote
Invest shortly.
30.5N, 80.3W, winds 20 kts.
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Lou
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Last edited by ccstorms on Sun Jul 20, 2008 3:28 pm; edited 4 times in total
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:33 pm    Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL Reply with quote

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:36 pm    Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL Reply with quote
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC THU JUL 17 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080717 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080717 1800 080718 0600 080718 1800 080719 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.5N 80.3W 31.3N 80.9W 32.4N 81.5W 33.0N 81.8W
BAMD 30.5N 80.3W 30.9N 80.6W 31.3N 80.8W 31.5N 81.0W
BAMM 30.5N 80.3W 31.1N 80.6W 31.8N 80.8W 32.2N 80.9W
LBAR 30.5N 80.3W 30.9N 80.4W 31.6N 80.8W 32.6N 80.8W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 26KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080719 1800 080720 1800 080721 1800 080722 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.8N 81.6W 34.5N 79.5W 34.7N 74.7W 36.1N 69.6W
BAMD 31.8N 81.2W 32.3N 80.6W 32.0N 76.5W 32.3N 74.6W
BAMM 32.6N 80.7W 32.9N 79.2W 32.3N 75.5W 32.5N 72.8W
LBAR 33.7N 80.3W 35.5N 78.1W 37.7N 73.6W 44.9N 66.3W
SHIP 28KTS 34KTS 41KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.5N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 29.5N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 28.0N LONM24 = 80.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:38 pm    Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL Reply with quote

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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 3:08 pm    Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL Reply with quote

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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 3:29 pm    Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL Reply with quote
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT.

POSITIVES
--------
850 MB VORTICITY GOOD.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE GOOD.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE GOOD.
WIND SHEAR VALUES GOOD.
WATER TEMPS GOOD.
POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT BY THE GULF STREAM.

NEGATIVES
---------
PROXIMITY TO LAND.
POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
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capecodder
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:01 pm    Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL Reply with quote
Looks like a Carolina threat.

Developing pretty fast.. Hopefully, it won't get further North.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:27 pm    Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL Reply with quote
capecodder wrote:
Looks like a Carolina threat.

Developing pretty fast.. Hopefully, it won't get further North.


Hi Rich. What, you don't want it to run to Cape Cod? Very Happy
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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 5:16 pm    Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL Reply with quote
Jacksonville radar.


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SW46TER
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:18 pm    Post subject: Re: CRISTOBAL Reply with quote
capecodder wrote:
Looks like a Carolina threat.

Developing pretty fast.. Hopefully, it won't get further North.
This should continue to develop and become a TS before it reaches NC later this weekend. As far as New England is concerned, it would need to become stronger......probably a cane to pull in and hook up with a trough to the north that would guide it up the East Coast rather than having it fade ENE from the Carolinas in a weaker state or die out over land.
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No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
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