OPHELIA IS AN ANNOYING NAME FOR A TS..........

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

Hey looky here...................NHC starting to come around to my loop track Laughing

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic...5day?large

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

I believe an eye is trying to form as the center of circulation was pulled Northward under the deep convection (see dark spot)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT...-loop.html

Storm did not move that fast last night (NE of Melbourne) but has just reorganized with the convection which was always NE od the center. Now she should crawl around for the rest of the week as she organizes and strengthens

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

9:45 AM Wed.....For the NHC to say this storm is headed NNW at 7mph IMO is dead wrong. I have been studying all aspects of this storm since 6:15 this morning and have come to the absolute conclusion (at least this morning) this system is CRAWLING West or even WSW. One way or another, it appears this system will cross Central Florida (Melbourne to Venice is my best guesstimate now) in the Thursday to Sunday time frame. It will not take that long to get across, the Sunday timeframe is if the storm loops before heading true West, while the earlier period is indicative of the slow drift now continuing and becoming a true heading. Sorry can't be more sure at this point but models are all over the place and crawling tropical systems with miniscule steering currents are not my meteorological strong point.... Laughing

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

Explosive development at 5pm on West side of storm.....

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

chris

That is crazy how the NHC changed there 3 day track 180 degrees in 1 day! Shocked

Instead of west now its east like you called it. I dont know what changed it so quickly but thats not good on there part to be shifting it so quickly. I mean its better for Florida (for now, who knows what its going to do later) but they had it coming across the Ga. Fla. Border north of Jacksonville. I do think this storm is going to have to be monitored very carefully though. It could easily build once it turns east and do another 180 degree shift! Shocked

_________________
Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

If you read their 5pm advisory...they are clueless...........The next track shift will be across the peninsula into the NE Gulf................In my estimation the winds are over 60mph now and if this convection on the west side wraps around, it will be hurricane but quick. A few feeder bands will try and come through this evening. If they do, the winds will briefly pick up in the quick moving storms. They won't stay up though as with both the storm and high to our north there is not a big pressure gradient yet......................

porkerp · Experienced Member Joined: Jun 09, 2005 Posts: 122

radar loop for the slow moving tropical ophelia crab Evil or Very Mad

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p...kmlb.shtml

chris

With it already having an eyewall it has to be getting close to hurricane strength Exclamation

_________________
Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

Will post after 11pm advisory.....

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1180

while ophilia's center has become exposed during the past few hours, she still shows bursts of good convection firing up on her North and East sides. She is being influenced by Nate to her East and a High North of the Gulf states. The only way I see an escape for FLA. is if Nate pulls her out tonight towards the NE. If not, the high will expand East behind Nate and only allow her to drift West or WSW for several days. She would have to remain stationary until Sunday or Monday to be able to move away from Fla. After Nate moves away, the storm should begin to get her act together and not just be a daytime rainmaker. I have no real change of feeling about my prior prediction and fully expect this storm to be along the West Coast early this weekend between Venice and New Port Richey and become a formidable storm in the NE Gulf with a second landfall between N.O. and Pensicola around Mon night or Tues. More tomorrow...............