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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - SOUTH FLORIDA HURRICANE THREAT NEXT WEEKEND........
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SOUTH FLORIDA HURRICANE THREAT NEXT WEEKEND........
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This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.   This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.    Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> 2005 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season
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tropix
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:40 am    Post subject: Images/Chris Reply with quote

Yeah. I actually posted these as John Ferguson sais they're taken while Wilma is still something like 300 miles away.....

On the north track adjustment. I agree with SW46; it'll probably move a tad more wnw hitting Cozumel and with a nice bow coming ene. We'll see what it does when it reaches Cabo Catoche on the north Yucatan tip. We have a crew for our work with Iridiums (not hurricane related) in Cancun. So I'll be getting almost r/t reports from there.

Cheers
/Bert/
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chris
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:58 pm    Post subject: Re: SOUTH FLORIDA HURRICANE THREAT NEXT WEEKEND........ Reply with quote

That would be great. Looks like todays rain was caused by an extreme outer band from Wilma. 1.13 inches fell in about 1 hour.
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SW46TER
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:59 pm    Post subject: Re: SOUTH FLORIDA HURRICANE THREAT NEXT WEEKEND........ Reply with quote

models clustering and trending North......

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/...early1.png
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SW46TER
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:05 pm    Post subject: Re: SOUTH FLORIDA HURRICANE THREAT NEXT WEEKEND........ Reply with quote

At this point, the only way I can see us not almost take a direct hit from this storm is if she slows a bit and doesn't get to Cuba's latitude until Sunday. This would allow the trof/front to dig down deeper into the gulf and forcing the track further South towards Miami. For now I will stick with Englewood Beach just NW of Port Charlotte for I feel "In The Zone" lately.
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chris
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:06 pm    Post subject: Re: SOUTH FLORIDA HURRICANE THREAT NEXT WEEKEND........ Reply with quote

Jeff, if you want to have the image show up in the forums, use the Img tool on top next to URL. Highlight it the same way as you would to create a URL link and this will show the actual image like below. Just thought I'd let you know. Sorry for not showing you this earlier. Very Happy


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SW46TER
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 7:17 pm    Post subject: WED 9pm Reply with quote

Very interesting evening. We have Max Mayfield of the NHC admitting at this point they are less certain of the track/timing then yesterday. During the afternoon the more intense colors on the IR disappeared yet recon has found the pressure has hardly risen. The pinhole eye is defying normalicy by hanging on so long without a completed IRC occuring. Anyway, the storm for the first time seems to have jogged North in the last couple of hours and is now East of the 5pm NHC track for the first time. If this trend continues, a Yucatan landfall will not occur and the long awaited latitude gain and acceleration would have begun. The deeper colors are wrapping around the center again so I don't expect any significant weakening anytime soon. The only fly in the ointment is a slug of dry air evident on the WV Loop ejecting Southward from the Gulf into the circulation. If this reaches the center, significant weakening would occur.
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chris
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 7:56 pm    Post subject: Re: SOUTH FLORIDA HURRICANE THREAT NEXT WEEKEND........ Reply with quote

I could be wrong but is this the dry-air mass you are talking about? I have it labeled in red.


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SW46TER
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:20 pm    Post subject: Re: SOUTH FLORIDA HURRICANE THREAT NEXT WEEKEND........ Reply with quote

You are correct sir....................
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SW46TER
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:32 pm    Post subject: Re: SOUTH FLORIDA HURRICANE THREAT NEXT WEEKEND........ Reply with quote

00Z model runs shift again. Expect NHC to nudge FL landfall back North again at 11pm.........unless they are getting dizzy from shifting up and down every 6 hours and try to show some continuity to the confused public Smile
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SW46TER
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:48 pm    Post subject: Re: SOUTH FLORIDA HURRICANE THREAT NEXT WEEKEND........ Reply with quote

MEET THE STRONGEST CAT 4 IN HISTORY...............
**********************************************************
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THISINTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH... 79 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH... 90 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES.
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